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The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ( IF 4.614 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-26 , DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17217840
Benjamin Petruželka , Miroslav Barták

Background: This study provides insight into the impact of methamphetamine precursor regulation, which is considered to be one of the most important tools of supply reduction and a tool with potential public health impact. Methods: It is based on a longitudinal and quasi-experimental design and it investigates the changes of methamphetamine precursor regulation in Czech Republic, which is treated as a natural experiment. The statistical analysis uses features from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test framework to estimate structural changes in the methamphetamine-related arrests and nonfatal intoxications time series. Results: The analysis identified structural breaks in the majority of the methamphetamine drug market-related time series in the period related to the tightening of regulation. The results of this study show that methamphetamine precursor regulation was associated with the proliferation of international and organized crime groups and with no change in the overall number of arrests and nonfatal intoxications. Conclusions: The precursor regulation ceteris paribus plausibly leads to the change in drug supply towards more organized groups and to an increasing involvement of foreign nationals at the drug market and is not effective in suppressing the methamphetamine market and in reducing the public health indicator of nonfatal methamphetamine intoxications.

中文翻译:

确定前体法规对甲基苯丙胺市场和捷克共和国公共卫生指标的影响:时间序列结构断裂分析

背景:这项研究提供了对甲基苯丙胺前体监管影响的见解,甲基苯丙胺前体监管被认为是减少供应的最重要工具之一,并且具有潜在的公共卫生影响。方法:该方法基于纵向和准实验设计,研究了捷克共和国甲基苯丙胺前体调节的变化,这被视为自然实验。统计分析使用广义波动检验框架和F检验框架中的功能来估计与甲基苯丙胺相关的逮捕和非致命性中毒时间序列的结构变化。结果:该分析确定了与加强监管有关的期间内与甲基苯丙胺药品市场相关的大多数时间序列的结构性断裂。这项研究的结果表明,甲基苯丙胺前体的监管与国际和有组织犯罪集团的扩散有关,而逮捕的总数和非致命性醉酒没有变化。结论:前体规制的其他条件可能导致药物供应向更有组织的群体转变,并导致外国国民越来越多地参与药品市场,并不能有效地抑制甲基苯丙胺市场并降低非致命性甲基苯丙胺的公共卫生指标。中毒。
更新日期:2020-10-28
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