Abstract African dust exhibits strong variability on a range of time scales. Here we show that the interhemispheric contrast in Atlantic SST (ICAS) drives African dust variability at decadal to millennial timescales, and the strong anthropogenic increase of the ICAS in the future will decrease African dust loading to a level never seen during the Holocene. We provide a physical framework to understand the relationship between the ICAS and African dust activity: positive ICAS anomalies push the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward and decrease surface wind speed over African dust source regions, which reduces dust emission and transport. It provides a unified framework for and is consistent with relationships in the literature. We find strong observational and proxy‐record support for the ICAS‐ITCZ‐dust relationship during the past 160 and 17,000 years. Model‐projected anthropogenic increase of the ICAS will reduce African dust by as much as 60%, which has broad consequences.

中文翻译：

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非洲尘埃的人为下降：来自全新世记录及以后的见解

摘要 非洲尘埃在一系列时间尺度上表现出强烈的可变性。在这里，我们表明大西洋海温 (ICAS) 的半球间对比驱动了十年到千年时间尺度的非洲尘埃变异，未来 ICAS 的强烈人为增加将使非洲尘埃负荷减少到全新世期间从未见过的水平。我们提供了一个物理框架来了解 ICAS 与非洲沙尘活动之间的关系：ICAS 正异常将热带辐合带 (ITCZ) 向北推，并降低了非洲沙尘源区的地表风速，从而减少了沙尘排放和运输。它为文献中的关系提供了统一的框架并与之一致。我们发现在过去 160 年和 17,000 年间，ICAS-ITCZ-尘埃关系得到了强有力的观测和代理记录支持。模型预测的 ICAS 人为增加将使非洲灰尘减少多达 60%，这将产生广泛的影响。