Predicting species response to climate change is a central challenge in ecology, particularly for species that inhabit large geographic areas. The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is a significant tree mortality agent in western North America with a distribution limited by climate. Recent warming has caused large‐scale MPB population outbreaks within its historical distribution, in addition to migration northward in western Canada. The relative roles of genetic and environmental sources of variation governing MPB capacity to persist in place in a changing climate, and the migratory potential at its southern range edge in the United States, have not been investigated. We reciprocally translocated MPB populations taken from the core and southern edge of their range, and simultaneously translocated both populations to a warmer, low‐elevation site near the southern range boundary where MPB activity has historically been absent despite suitable hosts. We found genetic variability and extensive plasticity in multiple fitness traits that would allow both populations to persist in a warming climate that resembles the thermal regime of our low‐elevation site. We demonstrate, for the first time, that supercooling points in MPBs are influenced both by genetic and environmental factors. Both populations reproduced with seasonally appropriate univoltine generation times at all translocated sites, and bivoltinism was not observed. The highest reproductive success occurred at the warmest, out‐of‐range low‐elevation site, suggesting that southward migration may not be temperature limited.

中文翻译：

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易位实验揭示气候变暖下山松甲虫持久性的能力

预测物种对气候变化的响应是生态的主要挑战，特别是对于居住在较大地理区域的物种而言。在北美西部，山松甲虫（MPB）是一种重要的树木致死因子，其分布受气候限制。除了加拿大西部向北迁移以外，最近的变暖还导致其历史分布范围内的大规模MPB人口暴发。尚未调查控制气候变化环境中MPB持续存在的遗传和环境变异来源的相对作用，以及美国南部山脉边缘的迁徙潜力。我们将MPB种群从其范围的核心和南部边缘进行了易位转移，同时将这两个种群转移到了较温暖的地方，南部山脉边界附近的低海拔站点，尽管有合适的宿主，但历史上一直没有MPB活动。我们发现了多种适应性状的遗传变异性和广泛的可塑性，使这两个种群都能在与我们低海拔站点的热态相似的变暖气候下持续生存。我们首次证明，MPB中的过冷点受遗传和环境因素影响。在所有易位地点，这两个种群均以季节性合适的单伏安产生时间繁殖，并且未观察到双伏安。最高的繁殖成功发生在最温暖，超出范围的低海拔地区，这表明向南迁徙可能不受温度的限制。我们发现了多种适应性状的遗传变异性和广泛的可塑性，使这两个种群都能在与我们低海拔站点的热态相似的变暖气候下持续生存。我们首次证明，MPB中的过冷点受遗传和环境因素影响。在所有易位地点，这两个种群均以季节性合适的单伏安产生时间繁殖，并且未观察到双伏安。最高的繁殖成功发生在最温暖，超出范围的低海拔地区，这表明向南迁徙可能不受温度的限制。我们发现了多种适应性状的遗传变异性和广泛的可塑性，使这两个种群都能在与我们低海拔站点的热态相似的变暖气候下持续生存。我们首次证明，MPB中的过冷点受遗传和环境因素影响。在所有易位地点，这两个种群均以季节性合适的单伏安产生时间繁殖，并且未观察到双伏安。最高的繁殖成功发生在温度最高，超出范围的低海拔地区，这表明向南迁徙可能不受温度的限制。MPB中的过冷点首次受到遗传和环境因素的影响。在所有易位地点，这两个种群均以季节性合适的单伏安产生时间繁殖，并且未观察到双伏安。最高的繁殖成功发生在最温暖，超出范围的低海拔地区，这表明向南迁徙可能不受温度的限制。MPB中的过冷点首次受到遗传和环境因素的影响。在所有易位地点，这两个种群均以季节性合适的单伏安产生时间繁殖，并且未观察到双伏安。最高的繁殖成功发生在最温暖，超出范围的低海拔地区，这表明向南迁徙可能不受温度的限制。