Demographic parameters provide baselines to estimate future population trajectories which can then be used in management decisions. The aim here was to estimate demographic parameters of long‐finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas) from the Strait of Gibraltar by fitting mark‐recapture models to photo‐identification data of primary and secondary marked individuals. These parameters were used to forecast the future population trajectories in a population viability analysis (PVA) given different scenarios of demographic rates. Survival rate increased with age from 0.629, 95% CI [0.409, 0.805] for calves, 0.869, 95% CI [0.758, 0.934] for juveniles, to 0.972, 95% CI [0.953, 0.983] for adults. A preliminary mean observed interval of viable calves was 4.5 years. The PVA estimated the population would persist over 100 years with a 100% probability for all scenarios except those with lower 95% CI survival values, for which the probability of extinction reached 100%. Population growth rate was negative in all scenarios except those with 95% CI upper survival values. Interbirth interval and juvenile survival were found most influential and depended on the correct identification of secondary marked (e.g., calves and juveniles) individuals on a long‐term basis. This population was found in a precarious state prior to a morbillivirus outbreak that might even more endanger its long‐term viability.

中文翻译：

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自由放养的鲸类鲸，长鳍鲸的人口统计参数

人口统计参数提供了估计未来人口轨迹的基线，然后可以将这些基线用于管理决策。此处的目的是估计长鳍pilot鲸（Globicephala melas）的人口统计参数），通过将标记获取模型拟合到主要和次要标记个人的照片识别数据，从直布罗陀海峡获取信息。在人口生存率分析（PVA）中，这些参数用于在给定不同人口统计学情况的情况下预测未来的人口轨迹。随着年龄的增长，成活率从犊牛的0.629、95％CI [0.409、0.805]，少年的0.869、95％CI [0.758、0.934]上升到成人的0.972、95％CI [0.953、0.983]。观察到的活牛的初步平均间隔为4.5年。PVA估计，除了95％CI生存值较低的物种灭绝的可能性达到100％的情况以外，所有情况下该种群将以100％的概率生存100年。在所有情况下，人口增长率均为负值，CI生存率最高值为95％的情况除外。发现生育间隔和青少年存活率的影响最大，并取决于长期对次要标记个体（例如，犊牛和未成年个体）的正确识别。该人群被发现之前处于病毒感染爆发前的不稳定状态，这可能甚至危及其长期生存能力。