The stock market is a bellwether of socio-economic changes that may directly affect individual well-being. Using large-scale UK-biobank data generated over 14 years, we applied specification curve analysis to rigorously identify significant associations between the local stock market index (FTSE100) and 479,791 UK residents' mood, as well as their alcohol intake and blood pressure adjusting the results for a large number of potential confounders, including age, sex, linear and non-linear effects of time, research site, other stock market indexes. Furthermore, we found similar associations between FTSE100 and volumetric measures of affective brain regions in a subsample (n=39,755; measurements performed over 5.5 years), which were particularly strong around phase transitions characterized by maximum volatility in the market. The main findings did not depend on applied effect-size estimation criteria (linear methods or mutual information criterion) and were replicated in two independent US-based studies (Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative; n=424; performed over 2,5 years and MyConnectome; n=1; 81 measurements over 1,5 years). Our results suggest that phase transitions in the society, indexed by stock market, exhibit close relationships with human mood, health and the affective brain from an individual to population level.

中文翻译：

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大规模的社会动态反映在人类的情绪和大脑中

股市是社会经济变化的领头羊，这些变化可能直接影响个人的福祉。我们使用过去14年中生成的大规模英国生物库数据，应用规范曲线分析来严格识别本地股票市场指数（FTSE100）与479,791英国居民情绪，他们的饮酒量和血压调整之间的重要联系。大量潜在混杂因素的结果，包括年龄，性别，时间的线性和非线性影响，研究地点，其他股票市场指数。此外，我们在子样本中发现FTSE100与情感性大脑区域的体积度量之间存在相似的关联（n = 39,755；在5.5年内进行的测量），在以市场最大波动为特征的相变附近尤其紧密。主要发现不依赖于所应用的效应量估计标准（线性方法或共同信息标准），并已在两项基于美国的独立研究中重复使用（帕金森氏病进展指标计划； n = 424；历时2.5年； MyConnectome； 5年）。 n = 1；在1.5年内进行了81次测量）。我们的研究结果表明，以股票市场为指标的社会阶段性变迁与人类情绪，健康状况以及从个人到人群的情感大脑有着密切的关系。