Abstract The shipping industry has been facing increasing pressure to reduce environmental emissions. For instance, starting in 2020 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) required a reduction of the global sulfur limit for shipping fuels outside designated Sulfur Emission Control Areas (SECA) from 3.5% to 0.5% on a mass basis. Other pollutants are also being targeted for short-term and long-term reduction. Aiming at providing sustainable fuel solutions for the stage of tank to propeller, this manuscript evaluates various shipping fuel options focusing on quantitatively comparing the fuel consumption and emissions of major air pollutants. A bottom-up emission inventory model is developed by analyzing and optimizing multiple sources of load factors, specific fuel consumption and emission factors. Rather than taking deterministic emission leading values, this work improves the model quality by considering external factors and the latest emission data and processing a detailed ship-by-ship calculation for the ship database collected by the shipboard Automatic Identification System (AIS). The amounts of carbon dioxide for the main engine, auxiliary engine and auxiliary boilier are firstly calculated, and then the fuel consumption per nautical mile are computed by integrating CO2 intensity. Next, ship exhaust gases are calculated for two categories: (i) gases impacting the global warming potential (GWP) and (ii) the non-GWP gases. Besides sustainable solutions within one specific ship fleet, this work firstly establishes a nautical mile-based fuel consumption per unit of capacity bin for major merchant ships to serve as a basis for finding an optimized fuel solution among different ship types. In addition to addressing the typical ship-source pollutants, this work also focuses on negative environmental effects resulting from BCA because it has not been thoroughly considered in the literatures despite its contribution to GWP. To illustrate the value and applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is solved to estimate the cumulative fuel consumption and GWP-related gas emission inventory for a transoceanic trip from Houston to Rotterdam. The results demonstrate that the GWP gas emissions of heavy fuel oil with scrubber are 38% more than those of one LNG dual-engine option. Explicit consideration is also given to BCA emissions. The results indicate that the blended fuel aimed at satisfying the IMO 2020 Sulfur Cap does not perform well in BCA emission control.

中文翻译：

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考虑黑碳气溶胶的 IMO 合规燃料排放的数据驱动研究

摘要 航运业面临着越来越大的减少环境排放的压力。例如，从 2020 年开始，国际海事组织 (IMO) 要求将指定硫排放控制区 (SECA) 以外运输燃料的全球硫含量限制从 3.5% 降低到 0.5%，以质量为基础。其他污染物也正在成为短期和长期减排的目标。本手稿旨在为油箱到螺旋桨阶段提供可持续的燃料解决方案，评估各种航运燃料选择，重点是定量比较主要空气污染物的燃料消耗和排放。通过分析和优化负载因子、比燃料消耗和排放因子的多个来源，开发了自下而上的排放清单模型。这项工作不是采用确定性的排放领先值，而是通过考虑外部因素和最新的排放数据，并对船上自动识别系统 (AIS) 收集的船舶数据库进行详细的逐船计算来提高模型质量。先计算主机、辅机和辅锅炉的二氧化碳排放量，然后综合CO2强度计算每海里燃料消耗量。接下来，计算两类船舶废气：(i) 影响全球变暖潜能值 (GWP) 的气体和 (ii) 非 GWP 气体。除了一个特定船队内的可持续解决方案，这项工作首先建立了以海里为基础的主要商船单位容量箱的燃料消耗量，作为在不同船型之间寻找优化燃料解决方案的基础。除了解决典型的船源污染物外，这项工作还关注 BCA 导致的负面环境影响，因为尽管它对 GWP 有贡献，但在文献中并未得到充分考虑。为了说明所提出方法的价值和适用性，我们解决了一个案例研究，以估计从休斯顿到鹿特丹的跨洋旅行的累积燃料消耗和 GWP 相关的气体排放清单。结果表明，带有洗涤器的重质燃料油的 GWP 气体排放量比一种 LNG 双引擎选项高 38%。还明确考虑了 BCA 排放。