Abstract A novel mathematical model was developed to study the historical effects of ionising radiation from the 1986 Chernobyl accident on a vole population. The model uses an ecosystem approach combining radiation damages and repair, life history and ecological interactions. The influence of reproduction, mortality and factors such as ecosystem resource, spatial heterogeneity and migration are included. Radiation-induced damages are represented by a radiosensitive ‘repairing pool’ mediating between healthy, damaged and radio-adapted animals. The endpoints of the model are repairable radiation damage (morbidity), impairment of reproductive ability and mortality. The focus of the model is the Red Forest, an area some 3 km west of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. We simulated ecosystem effects of both current exposures and historical doses, including transgenerational effects and adaptation. The results highlight the primary role of animal mobility in stabilising the vole population after the accident, the importance of ecosystem recovery, the time evolution of the repairing and fecundity pools and the impact of adaptation on population sustainability. Using this model, we found dose rate tipping points for mortality and morbidity, along with a limiting migration rate for population survival and the limiting size of the most contaminated region not entailing loss of survival. Our ecosystem approach to radioecological modelling enables an exploration of the impact of radiation in an ecological context, consistent with the available observations. Model predictions indicate that population sensitivity in our exposure scenario does not contradict the benchmarks currently considered in risk assessments for wildlife. The model can be used to support advice on the extent to which historical doses and other ecological factors may influence different exposure modelling scenarios. The approach could easily be adapted to accommodate other stressors, thereby contributing to the evaluation of the regulatory benchmarks used in non-radiological risk assessment.

中文翻译：

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在生态环境中模拟电离辐射对切尔诺贝利红森林田鼠种群的影响

摘要 开发了一种新的数学模型来研究 1986 年切尔诺贝利事故中电离辐射对田鼠种群的历史影响。该模型采用结合辐射损害和修复、生活史和生态相互作用的生态系统方法。包括繁殖、死亡率和生态系统资源、空间异质性和迁移等因素的影响。辐射引起的损伤由辐射敏感的“修复池”代表，介导健康、受损和适应辐射的动物。该模型的终点是可修复的辐射损伤（发病率）、生殖能力受损和死亡率。该模型的重点是红森林，该区域位于切尔诺贝利核电站以西约 3 公里处。我们模拟了当前暴露和历史剂量对生态系统的影响，包括跨代效应和适应。结果强调了动物流动在事故后稳定田鼠种群中的主要作用、生态系统恢复的重要性、修复和繁殖池的时间演变以及适应对种群可持续性的影响。使用这个模型，我们发现了死亡率和发病率的剂量率临界点，以及人口生存的限制迁移率和不导致生存损失的受污染最严重区域的限制大小。我们对放射生态建模的生态系统方法能够探索辐射在生态环境中的影响，与现有的观察结果一致。模型预测表明，我们的暴露情景中的种群敏感性与目前野生动物风险评估中考虑的基准并不矛盾。该模型可用于支持有关历史剂量和其他生态因素可能影响不同暴露建模情景的程度的建议。该方法可以很容易地适应其他压力因素，从而有助于评估非放射风险评估中使用的监管基准。