Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the relative effects of these cues. Almost all species show strong responses to all three cues, with chilling being the strongest and photoperiod the weakest. Forecasts from our findings for Central Europe suggest that spring phenology will continue to advance, as stalling effects of chilling generally appear above 4 °C warming in this region. Our results unify both sides of the debate over phenological cues: while all species may respond to all cues strongly in experimental conditions, in current environmental conditions the dominant signal of climate change is from increased forcing.

对木本植物物种的研究突出了影响春季物候事件的三个​​主要线索：冷害，强迫和光周期。关于气候变化的物候影响的越来越多的研究引起了关于近年来冷和/或光周期线索是否减慢了对变暖的物候反应的争论。在这里，我们使用所有已发表实验的全局荟萃分析来测试这些线索的相对影响。几乎所有物种对这三个线索都表现出强烈的反应，其中冷害最强，光周期最弱。根据我们对中欧的调查结果预测，春季物候将继续发展，因为该地区通常在高于4°C的温度下出现寒冷的停滞效应。我们的结果统一了关于物候线索的辩论的双方：