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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Temperature Variability in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems ( IF 1.500 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-19 , DOI: 10.5194/gi-2020-34
Mostafa A. Mohamed , Mohamed El-Sayed El-Mahdy

Abstract. In this paper, spatial and temporal patterns of changes in extreme temperatures are investigated using 10 meteorological stations data for the period 1950–2018 in the Blue Nile basin. Monthly temperature data for the basin were used in the study. Long-term trends in the Blue Nile Basin annual and monthly temperatures were investigated. The statistical significance of the trend is calculated by applying the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The analysis of data was performed using the coefficient of variance, anomaly index. The results showed that the annual maximum and minimum temperature is increasing significantly with a magnitude of 0.037° and 0.025 °C per decade respectively in the period from 1950–2018. The result of the Mann-Kendall analysis test revealed a marked increase in mean maximum and minimum temperatures trend over time significantly during the study period (the minimum temperature rate is more evident than the maximum). The long-term anomalies of mean annual minimum temperature revealed the inter-annual variability while the trend after 1977 was higher than the long-term average that is proof of the warming trend existence since the last two decades of the 20th century.

中文翻译:

埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河盆地气候变化对极端温度变化的影响评估

摘要。本文使用Blue Nile盆地1950-2018年期间的10个气象站数据,研究了极端温度变化的时空格局。该研究使用了该盆地的每月温度数据。研究了青尼罗河盆地年度和每月温度的长期趋势。通过应用Mann-Kendall(MK)检验来计算趋势的统计显着性。使用方差系数,异常指数进行数据分析。结果表明,在1950-2018年期间,年最高和最低温度分别以每十年0.037°C和0.025°C的幅度显着增加。曼恩·肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)分析测试的结果显示,在研究期间,平均最高和最低温度趋势随时间显着增加(最低温度速率比最高温度速率更明显)。年平均最低温度的长期异常揭示了年际变化,而1977年以后的趋势高于长期平均水平,这证明自20世纪后二十年以来存在变暖趋势。
更新日期:2020-10-19
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