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A Warm Summer is Unlikely to Stop Transmission of COVID‐19 Naturally
GeoHealth ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-18 , DOI: 10.1029/2020gh000292
Ming Su 1, 2 , Shushi Peng 3 , Lili Chen 4 , Bin Wang 5, 6 , Ying Wang 7, 8 , Xiarui Fan 7 , Zhaomin Dong 7, 8
Affiliation  

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) showed various transmission rate (Rt) across different regions. The determination of the factors affecting transmission rate is urgent and crucial to combat COVID‐19. Here we explored variation of Rt between 277 regions across the globe and the associated potential socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. At global scale, the Rt started to decrease approximately 2 weeks after policy interventions initiated. This lag from the date of policy interventions initiation to the date when Rt started to decrease ranges from 9 to 19 days, largest in Europe and North America. We find that proportion of elderly people or life expectancy can explain ~50% of variation in transmission rate across the 277 regions. The transmission rate at the point of inflection (RI) increases by 29.4% (25.2–34.0%) for 1% uptick in the proportion of people aged above 65, indicating that elderly people face ~2.5 times higher infection risk than younger people. Air temperature is negatively correlated with transmission rate, which is mainly attributed to collinearities between air temperature and demographic factors. Our model predicted that temperature sensitivity of RI is only −2.7% (−5.2–0%) per degree Celsius after excluding collinearities between air temperature and demographic factors. This low temperature sensitivity of RI suggests that a warm summer is unlikely to impede the spread of COVID‐19 naturally.

中文翻译:

温暖的夏季不太可能自然阻止 COVID-19 的传播

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的爆发在不同地区表现出不同的传播率( R t )。确定影响传播率的因素对于对抗 COVID-19 来说是紧迫且至关重要的。在这里,我们探讨了全球 277 个地区之间R t的变化以及相关的潜在社会经济、人口和环境因素。在全球范围内,R t在政策干预开始后约两周开始下降。从政策干预开始之日到R t开始下降之日的滞后期为 9 至 19 天,其中欧洲和北美的滞后期最大。我们发现老年人比例或预期寿命可以解释 277 个地区传播率约 50% 的变化。65岁以上人口比例每增加1% ,拐点传播率(R I)增加29.4%(25.2-34.0%),表明老年人面临的感染风险比年轻人高约2.5倍。气温与传播率呈负相关,这主要归因于气温与人口因素之间的共线性。我们的模型预测,在排除气温和人口因素之间的共线性后,R I的温度敏感性仅为每摄氏度−2.7% (−5.2–0%)。R I的这种低温敏感性表明温暖的夏季不太可能自然地阻止 COVID-19 的传播。
更新日期:2020-12-15
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