Global climate change can affect animal ecology in numerous ways, but researchers usually emphasize undesirable consequences. Temperature increases, for instance, can induce direct physiological costs and indirect effects via mismatches in resource needs and availability. Species living in mountainous regions, however, could experience beneficial effects because winters might become less severe. We examined the potentially opposing effects of climate change during spring, summer, and winter on recruitment in Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). We examined initial recruitment (i.e., the ratio of kids to adult females) and net recruitment (i.e., the ratio of yearlings to adult females) of Alpine chamois through the use of linear mixed effects models and data from block count censuses performed across a 1,500‐km² study area in the Italian Alps during summer from 2001 to 2015. Initial recruitment was relatively resistant to the effects of climate change, declining slightly over the study period. We suggest that the effects of increased forage availability and lower snow cover in winter may benefit the reproductive output of adult females, compensating for any negative effects of trophic mismatch and higher temperatures during summer. By contrast, net recruitment strongly declined throughout the study period, consistent with the slight decline of initial recruitment and the negative effects of increasing summer temperatures on the survival of kids during their first winter. These negative effects seemed to outweigh positive effects of climate change, even in a species strongly challenged by winter conditions. These findings provide important information for hunted populations; setting more appropriate hunting bags for yearling chamois should be considered. The ecological plasticity of the chamois, which also inhabits low altitudes, may allow a possible evolutionary escape for the species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对高山羚羊的相反影响

全球气候变化可以多种方式影响动物生态，但研究人员通常强调不良后果。例如，温度升高会因资源需求和可用性不匹配而导致直接的生理成本和间接影响。然而，生活在山区的物种可能会受益，因为冬天可能会变得不那么严峻。我们研究了春季，夏季和冬季气候变化对高山羚羊（Rupicapra rupicapra）。我们通过使用线性混合效应模型和来自1,500例人口普查的数据，研究了高山羚羊的初始募集（即，孩子与成年女性的比例）和净招聘（即，一岁与成年女性的比例） -公里²从2001年到2015年夏季，这是意大利阿尔卑斯山的一个研究区域。最初的招聘相对抵御了气候变化的影响，在研究期间略有下降。我们认为，冬季增加草料供应和减少积雪的影响可能有益于成年雌性的生殖输出，补偿了营养失配和夏季高温造成的任何负面影响。相比之下，在整个研究期间，净招募量急剧下降，这与初始招募量略有下降以及夏季气温升高对孩子在第一个冬天的生存的负面影响相一致。这些负面影响似乎超过了气候变化的正面影响，即使是在受到冬季条件强烈挑战的物种中也是如此。这些发现为被捕人口提供了重要信息。应考虑为一岁羚羊设置更合适的狩猎袋。麂皮的生态可塑性，也栖息在低海拔地区，可能允许该物种进化逃逸。©2020野生动物协会。