The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the \(\textit{added value}\) of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches \(6\, ^\circ \hbox {C}\) and \(3\, ^\circ \hbox {C}\) for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively.

已分析了WRF区域气候模型（RCM）特定配置的真实性，以表示在1971-2005年期间在伊比利亚半岛（IP）上观测到的温度演变。E-OBS观测数据集用于此目的。另外，\（\ textit {附加值} \）相对于用于驱动WRF RCM的IPSL地球系统模型（ESM），评估了WRF模拟的结果。通常，WRF的温度要比IP上的观测值（负偏差）低。这些偏差比驱动ESM的偏差要大。一旦偏差得到纠正，WRF就可以提供更高的空间代表价值。与网格化观测相比，WRF在某些区域引入了更多的可变性。根据观测，变暖趋势也由RCM很好地代表。在本研究的第二部分中，针对21世纪的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景评估了ESM和RCM对未来气候的预测。尽管两个模型都模拟温度升高，在21世纪中叶之后，RCM模拟的变暖幅度小于ESM，除了冬季。使用WRF模型，最大温度升高达到到年底伊比利亚半岛东南部的RCP8.5和RCP4.5的\（6 \，^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \）和\（3 \，^ \ circ \ hbox {C} \）分别是21世纪