Abstract Vegetable oil market is becoming of increasing interest in the global biofuel industry. This phenomenon has also interested the European Union (EU), where the growing expansion of biofuel production is affected by political interventions promoting fuel security and environmental goals. Yet, empirical evidence on the impacts that changes in price of one commodity may have on the supply of another commodity are rather scant. We investigate these dynamics for the major sources of biodiesel in the EU and conclude on cross-commodity linkages for palm, rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils. We also examine the acreage response of domestically produced feedstocks to changes in prices of vegetable oils. Our findings suggest strong and diversified path dependencies among vegetable oils that should be considered in planning sustainable biofuel policies. In particular, the empirical analysis reveals the great relevance of sunflower and soy oils, which show a high price responsiveness, and the high competition in end uses of domestically produced vegetable oils (i.e. rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils), that tend to be net substitutes in supply. In terms of land use effects, we find that an increase in the price of imported palm oil results in a displacement effect in land devoted to rapeseed cultivation, whereas a surge in the price of sunflower oil decreases the use of land for rapeseed. Land use effects would be relevant in northern EU countries where the production of rapeseed is the most intense. A policy measure in the EU, incentivising the production of renewable and environmental-friendly fuel from sustainable feedstocks, would be positive for the domestic market to the extent that it stimulates the production of vegetable oils (soy and sunflower oils) with the highest direct and indirect emissions saving. However, the expansion of oil palm plantations in extra-EU producing countries and of imports to the EU would determine important impacts in terms of indirect land use change emissions and direct emissions due to increased transports.

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欧盟植物油市场供应和种植面积的价格反应：政策影响

摘要 植物油市场越来越受到全球生物燃料行业的关注。这种现象也引起了欧盟 (EU) 的兴趣，其中生物燃料生产的不断扩大受到促进燃料安全和环境目标的政治干预的影响。然而，关于一种商品的价格变化可能对另一种商品的供应产生影响的经验证据相当少。我们调查了欧盟生物柴油主要来源的这些动态，并得出了棕榈油、菜籽油、大豆油和葵花籽油的跨商品联系的结论。我们还研究了国产原料对植物油价格变化的种植面积响应。我们的研究结果表明，在规划可持续生物燃料政策时应考虑植物油之间强烈且多样化的路径依赖性。尤其是，实证分析揭示了葵花油和豆油之间的巨大相关性，它们显示出高价格反应性，以及国产植物油（即菜籽油、大豆油和葵花籽油）的最终用途竞争激烈，这往往是供给中的净替代品。在土地利用效应方面，我们发现进口棕榈油价格上涨导致用于油菜籽种植的土地的置换效应，而葵花籽油价格的上涨减少了油菜籽的土地利用。在油菜籽生产最为密集的欧盟北部国家，土地利用效应将是相关的。欧盟的一项政策措施，鼓励使用可持续原料生产可再生和环保的燃料，在刺激植物油（大豆油和葵花籽油）生产的程度上，对国内市场是积极的，直接和间接减排量最高。然而，在非欧盟生产国扩大油棕种植园和向欧盟进口油棕将决定间接土地利用变化排放和运输增加导致的直接排放方面的重要影响。