Among the problems related to water security, the effects of climate change on water availability stand out. Researchers have used hydrological models integrated with climate models in order to predict the streamflow behaviour in different hydrographic basins. This work aimed to analyse future climate scenarios for the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R was used in the simulation of climate data, which were used as input data in the hydrological model SMAP, after it was calibrated and validated for the study site. In all, five future scenarios were generated, with scenarios A, B, C and D projected based on the 5th report of the IPCC and scenario E based on the trend of climate data in the region. Among the scenarios generated, scenario D, which considers an increase of 4.8 °C in air temperature and a reduction of 10% in rainfall, is responsible for the worst water condition in the basin and can reduce up to 72.41% of the average flow and up to 55.50%, 54.18% and 38.17% of the low flow parameters Q90%, Q95% and Q7,10, respectively, until the end of the twenty-first century. However, the E scenario also becomes a matter of concern, since it was responsible for greater increases in temperature and greater reductions in rainfall and, consequently, more drastic monthly reductions in streamflow, which may negatively impact water resources and affect the various uses of water in the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin.

在与水安全有关的问题中，气候变化对水供应的影响突出。研究人员已将水文模型与气候模型结合使用，以预测不同水文盆地中的径流行为。这项工作旨在分析位于巴西圣保罗州的Ribeirãodo Lobo流域的未来气候情景。随机发生器PGECLIMA_R用于气候数据的模拟，在为研究现场进行校准和验证后，将其用作水文模型SMAP中的输入数据。总共产生了五个未来情景，其中情景A，B，C和D是根据IPCC的第五次报告预测的，情景E是根据该地区气候数据的趋势预测的。在生成的方案中，方案D考虑增加4。气温最高达8°C，降雨量减少了10％，是造成该盆地水质最差的原因，可降低平均流量的72.41％，降低最低流量的55.50％，54.18％和38.17％直到二十一世纪末，流量参数分别为Q90％，Q95％和Q7,10。但是，E情景也引起了人们的关注，因为它造成了温度的进一步升高和降雨的减少，进而导致每月流量的急剧减少，这可能对水资源产生不利影响并影响水的各种用途。在Ribeirãodo Lobo流域。到二十世纪末，低流量参数分别为Q90％，Q95％和Q7,10的17％。但是，E情景也引起了人们的关注，因为它造成了温度的进一步升高和降雨的减少，进而导致每月流量的急剧减少，这可能对水资源产生不利影响并影响水的各种用途。在Ribeirãodo Lobo流域。到二十世纪末，低流量参数分别为Q90％，Q95％和Q7,10的17％。但是，E情景也引起了人们的关注，因为它造成了温度的进一步升高和降雨的减少，进而导致每月流量的急剧减少，这可能对水资源产生不利影响并影响水的各种用途。在Ribeirãodo Lobo流域。