Abstract Drought is one of the most devastating climate extremes in terms of its spatial extent and intensity. Rainfed areas are extremely vulnerable to drought, but effective monitoring may lessen the impact of such events. This study developed a composite drought index (CDI) for monitoring and assessing seasonal droughts in rainfed areas of the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan, using remotely sensed and observed meteorological datasets. We identified four severe-to-extreme drought periods in the Rabi season (wheat; 2000–01, 2001–02, 2009–10, and 2011–12) and four such events in the Kharif season (maize; 2000–2002 and 2009). An intense agro-meteorological drought was experienced in 2000, which reduced the wheat and maize yields to −54.6% and −29.9%, respectively. Our analysis revealed that these conditions could be explained by the vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (MFD), moisture transport, and total precipitable water (TPW) anomalies. For example, the presence of a strong MFD anomaly over the study area was responsible for preventing moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, resulting in dry conditions. The index developed here can effectively monitor seasonal droughts in rainfed areas, which may help inform strategies to lessen the impact of such events.

中文翻译：

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评估用于识别巴基斯坦旁遮普邦北部季节性干旱及其相关大气动态的综合干旱指数

摘要 就空间范围和强度而言，干旱是最具破坏性的极端气候事件之一。雨育地区极易受到干旱的影响，但有效的监测可能会减轻此类事件的影响。本研究开发了一个综合干旱指数 (CDI)，用于使用遥感和观测气象数据集监测和评估巴基斯坦 Potwar 高原雨育地区的季节性干旱。我们确定了 Rabi 季节（小麦；2000-01、2001-02、2009-10 和 2011-12）中的四个严重到极端干旱期和 Kharif 季节（玉米；2000-2002 和 2009 ）。2000 年经历了严重的农业气象干旱，小麦和玉米的产量分别下降到 -54.6% 和 -29.9%。我们的分析表明，这些条件可以通过垂直整合的水分通量散度 (MFD)、水分输送和总可降水量 (TPW) 异常来解释。例如，研究区域上存在强烈的 MFD 异常是阻止来自阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的水分输送的原因，导致干燥条件。这里开发的指数可以有效地监测雨育地区的季节性干旱，这可能有助于为减轻此类事件影响的战略提供信息。