In this article, we evaluate the impact of temperature and precipitation at the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) on the yield of maize in the Azuero Region in Panama. Using projected data from an atmospheric climate model, MRI-ACGM 3.2S, the study variables are related to maize yield (t ha${}^{-1}$) under four different sea surface Temperature (SST) Ensembles (C0, C1, C2, and C3) and in three different planting dates (21 August, 23 September, and 23 October). In terms climate, results confirm the increase in temperatures and precipitation intensity that has been projected for the region at the end of the century. Moreover, differences are found in the average precipitation patterns of each SST-ensemble, which leads to difference in maize yield. SST-Ensembles C0, C1, and C3 predict a doubling of the yield observed from baseline period (1990–2003), while in C1, the yield is reduced around 5%. Yield doubling is attributed to the increase in rainfall, while yield decrease is related to the selection of a later planting date, which is indistinct to the SST-ensembles used for the calculation. Moreover, lower yields are related to years in which El Niño Southerm Oscilation (ENSO) are projected to occur at the end of century. The results are important as they provide a mitigation strategy for maize producers under rainfed model on the Azuero region, which is responsible for over 95% of the production of the country.

中文翻译：

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使用统计作物模型预测巴拿马Azuero地区本世纪末的玉米产量

在本文中，我们评估了21世纪末（2075-2099年）温度和降水对巴拿马Azuero地区玉米产量的影响。使用来自大气气候模型MRI-ACGM 3.2S的预计数据，研究变量与玉米产量（t ha${}^{-\mathrm{1个}}$）在四个不同的海面温度（SST）集合（C0，C1，C2和C3）下以及在三个不同的种植日期（8月21日，9月23日和10月23日）下进行。在气候方面，结果证实了本世纪末该地区预计的温度和降水强度增加。此外，在每个SST集合的平均降水模式中发现差异，这导致了玉米产量的差异。SST组合C0，C1和C3预测从基准期（1990-2003年）观察到的产量翻番，而在C1中，产量降低5％左右。单产增加归因于降雨的增加，而单产下降与以后播种日期的选择有关，这与用于计算的SST组合没有区别。此外，较低的产量与预计在本世纪末发生厄尔尼诺·索瑟姆振荡（ENSO）的年份有关。该结果非常重要，因为它们为Azuero地区采用雨养模式的玉米生产者提供了缓解策略，该地区占该国95％以上的产量。