1. Species distribution models (SDMs) estimate habitat suitability for species in geographic space. They are extensively used in conservation under the assumption that there is a positive relationship between habitat suitability and species success and stability. 2. Given the difficulties in obtaining demographic data across a species' range, this assumption is rarely tested. Here we provide a range-wide test of this relationship for the eastern subspecies of purple martin (Progne subis subis). 3. We build a well-supported SDM for the breeding range of the purple martin, and pair it with an unparalleled demographic dataset of nest success and local and regional abundance data for the species to test the proposed link between habitat suitability and fecundity and demography. 4. We find a positive relationship between regional abundance and habitat suitability but no relationship between local abundance or fecundity and habitat suitability. 5. Our data suggest that local success is driven largely by biotic and stochastic factors and raise the possibility that purple martins are experiencing a time lag in their distribution. More broadly our results call for caution in how we interpret SDMs and do not support the assumption that areas of high habitat suitability are the best areas for species persistence.

中文翻译：

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对人口统计学和模拟栖息地适宜性之间关系的支持对于 Purple Martin、Progne subis 而言取决于规模

1. 物种分布模型 (SDM) 估计地理空间中物种的栖息地适宜性。在假设栖息地适宜性与物种成功和稳定性之间存在正相关关系的情况下，它们被广泛用于保护。2. 鉴于在一个物种范围内获得人口统计数据的困难，这个假设很少被检验。在这里，我们为紫色马丁 (Progne subis subis) 的东部亚种提供了这种关系的范围广泛的测试。3. 我们为紫色马丁的繁殖范围建立了一个得到充分支持的 SDM，并将其与无与伦比的筑巢成功人口统计数据集以及该物种的当地和区域丰度数据配对，以测试栖息地适宜性与繁殖力和人口统计学之间的拟议联系. 4. 我们发现区域丰度与栖息地适宜性之间存在正相关关系，但当地丰度或繁殖力与栖息地适宜性之间没有关系。5. 我们的数据表明，当地的成功在很大程度上是由生物和随机因素驱动的，这增加了紫色马丁在其分布中经历时间滞后的可能性。更广泛地说，我们的结果要求我们在解释 SDM 时要谨慎，并且不支持高栖息地适宜性区域是物种持久性最佳区域的假设。