Shellfish production is an important activity for the economy of many countries. As well as its direct value, it helps to stabilize communities in rural areas characterized by limited job opportunities. It is also important for consumers who recognize shellfish as a healthy product that gains its nutrition from natural plankton without the need for fertilizers, chemical treatments or other anthropogenic intervention typical of terrestrial agriculture or other marine aquaculture. Nevertheless, global shellfish fisheries are under threat from harmful algal blooms (HABs) and related biotoxins, whose production is potentially exacerbated by global changes. This research provides evidence of economic impacts on Scottish shellfish farms in the last 10 years caused by HABs and their associated biotoxins. In contrast to previous approaches that have focused on variation in production as a function of temporal trends and blooms events, we use a production function approach to show which input factors (labour, capital, climate variables, concentration of biotoxins) have an effect on production. Results show that diarrhoetic shellfish toxins produced by the genera Dinophysis are most significant. A 1% change in the production of these biotoxins reduces shellfish production by 0.66%, with an average yearly negative variation in production of 15% (1,080 ton) and an economic loss (turnover) of £ (GBP) 1.37 m per year (in 2015 currency) over a national annual industry turnover of ~ £ 12 m. The production function approach is coupled with a multivariate time series model (VAR) capturing the statistical relationship between algal concentration, information on climatic variables and biotoxins to forecast the damage to shellfish production from HABs. This provides producers and regulators with the economic information to plan temporal and spatial mitigating measures necessary to limit damages to production by comparing the costs of these measures with the costs of lost production.

贝类生产是许多国家经济的重要活动。它不仅具有直接价值，而且还有助于稳定工作机会有限的农村地区的社区。对于那些将贝类视为一种健康产品的消费者而言，这一点也很重要，因为贝类是从天然浮游生物中获取营养而无需肥料，化学处理或其他陆生农业或其他海水养殖的人为干预措施的。但是，全球贝类渔业正受到有害藻华（HAB）和相关生物毒素的威胁，全球变化可能会加剧其危害。这项研究提供了HAB及其相关生物毒素对过去十年来苏格兰贝类养殖场的经济影响的证据。与以前的方法侧重于将生产变化作为时间趋势和盛华事件的函数进行对比，我们使用生产函数方法来显示哪些输入因素（劳动力，资本，气候变量，生物毒素浓度）对生产有影响。结果表明，该属产生的腹泻性贝类毒素恐龙最重要。这些生物毒素的生产变化1％会使贝类生产下降0.66％，生产的年平均负变化为15％（1,080吨），每年经济损失（营业额）为137万英镑（英镑）。 （以2015年货币计算）全国年产业营业额约1200万英镑。生产函数方法与捕获藻类浓度，气候变量信息和生物毒素之间的统计关系的多元时间序列模型（VAR）结合在一起，以预测HAB对贝类生产的损害。通过将这些措施的成本与生产损失的成本进行比较，这为生产者和监管者提供了经济信息，以计划为减少对生产造成损害的必要的时间和空间缓解措施。