Future reduction in mountain snowpack due to anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to many snow‐adapted species worldwide. Mountain topography exerts a strong control on snowpack not only due to elevation but also through the effect of slope and aspect on the surface energy balance. We develop high‐resolution projections of snowpack in order to provide improved, physically based estimates of the spatial distribution of future snowpack to inform species conservation efforts for the wolverine (Gulo gulo) in two study areas in the Rocky Mountains: one in Montana with known den sites and one in Colorado with recent wolverine activity and potential for reintroduction. Here we assess springtime snowpack loss in actual and potential denning areas under five future climate scenarios for the mid‐21st century. Snowpack in April and May is likely to persist into the mid‐21st century in the upper half of current denning elevations in all but the warmest future climate scenario, while large declines are projected for the lower half of the denning elevations. We gain new insight into the influence of topographical aspect on future snowpack and quantify the potential for enhanced snow persistence on north and east facing slopes under future scenarios that is only revealed in simulations where terrain slopes are resolved.

中文翻译：

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落基山脉金刚狼山高地的高山积雪损失预测

由于人为气候变化而导致的未来山区积雪的减少，对全世界许多适应降雪的物种构成威胁。高山地形不仅由于海拔高度而且还通过坡度和坡向对表面能平衡的影响，对积雪具有强大的控制作用。我们开发积雪的高分辨率投影，以便对未来积雪的空间分布提供基于物理的改进估计，从而为金刚狼（Gulo gulo）在落基山脉的两个研究区域中：一个在蒙大拿州有已知的巢穴位置，一个在科罗拉多州具有最近的金刚狼活动并有再次引进的潜力。在这里，我们评估21世纪中叶在五个未来气候情景下，实际和潜在的裸露地区春季积雪的损失。除未来最暖和的气候情景外，4月和5月的积雪很可能会持续到21世纪中叶，当前登革热海拔的上半部分，除了未来最暖和的气候情景外，预计下半部分的降雪量将大大减少。我们获得了有关地形方面对未来积雪的影响的新见解，并量化了未来情况下北坡和东坡对雪的持久性增强的潜力，而这仅在解决了地形坡度的模拟中才得以揭示。