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Reliability assessment of pitting corrosion of pipeline under spatiotemporal earthquake including spatial-dependent corrosion growth
Process Safety and Environmental Protection ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2020.10.005
Yihuan Wang , Peng Zhang , Guojin Qin

Abstract The pitting corrosion of pipelines subjected to the spatio-temporal earthquake was evaluated to illustrate the failure probability of multiple loading conditions. The pipeline vibration was modeled as a coupled 3D vibration equation considering the uncertain soil parameters. Using a combination of the Gamma process and Gaussian copula function implemented time-dependent corroded growth of single defect as well as the spatial-dependent between corroded depth growths of different defects. All modeling was embedded in a frame of Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques to predict the future corroded growth by reported in-line inspections (ILIs). Moreover, the Monte Carlo simulation (MC) technique was used to evaluate the reliability of the pipeline system, including multiple corroded defects. A case study was employed to prove the application of all proposed models. The results indicate that the reliability analysis of pipelines under the earthquake considering pitting corrosion growth is of considerable significance to the accuracy of the evaluation, which can inform operators from process industry to mitigate the risk of pipeline failure.

中文翻译:

时空地震作用下管道点腐蚀的可靠性评估,包括空间相关腐蚀增长

摘要 评价时空地震作用下管道的点蚀,以说明多载荷工况下的失效概率。考虑到不确定的土壤参数,管道振动被建模为耦合的 3D 振动方程。结合 Gamma 过程和 Gaussian copula 函数实现了单个缺陷的时间相关腐蚀生长以及不同缺陷的腐蚀深度增长之间的空间相关。所有建模都嵌入在贝叶斯推理和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 (MCMC) 模拟技术的框架中,以通过报告的在线检查 (ILI) 预测未来的腐蚀增长。此外,蒙特卡罗模拟 (MC) 技术用于评估管道系统的可靠性,包括多个腐蚀缺陷。一个案例研究被用来证明所有提出的模型的应用。结果表明,考虑点蚀增长的地震作用下管道可靠性分析对评价的准确性具有重要意义,可以为加工业操作人员提供信息,降低管道失效风险。
更新日期:2021-04-01
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