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Can Groundwater Scenarios Be Predicted from Future Regional Climatic Input Variables?
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02692-4
Satiprasad Sahoo , Anirban Dhar , Anupam Debsarkar , Amlanjyoti Kar

Conjunctive use of water is an integral part of water resources management. Future groundwater scenarios will dictate the water management policies. The present research focuses on future groundwater scenario generation based on regional scale CMIP5 data. The future scenarios for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080 were generated in terms of the groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) with seven futuristic parameters [land use and land cover, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, groundwater recharge, groundwater table and evapotranspiration (ET)]. The Dyna-CLUE and MIROC5 were used for generation of the future change in climate and land use/land cover scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was utilized for the recharge and ET estimation. Future groundwater heads were calculated by using the Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow (MODFLOW). Bias corrected rainfall and temperature data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) were utilized. Total twelve water quality parameters (pH, Cl, Mg2+, F, Na+, EC, TH, HCO3, K+, Ca2+, SO42− and PO42−) were used for groundwater quality zone (GWQZ) mapping. These GWPZ and GWQZ were divided into three (poor potential, moderate potential, and good potential) and four zones (good quality, moderate quality, poor quality and above permissible limit) respectively. The lower part of the basin was identified as poor GWPZ (35.76% for 2030) and GWQZ due to an increase in urban areas. However, the middle and upstream portion covers good, moderate zones. Field-based soil moisture and groundwater level monitoring data were utilized for validation purposes. It was observed that groundwater level < 5 m bgl corresponds to good GWPZ. It was also observed that recharge and pH were the crucial parameters for good GWPZ (+11.83%) and GWQZ (−21.31%) according to sensitivity analysis.



中文翻译:

可以根据未来的区域气候输入变量来预测地下水情景吗?

水资源的综合利用是水资源管理的组成部分。未来的地下水情景将决定水管理政策。本研究着重于基于区域尺度CMIP5数据的未来地下水情景的产生。2030、2050和2080年的未来情景是根据具有七个未来参数的地下水潜在区(GWPZ)生成的[土地利用和土地覆盖,最高温度,最低温度,降雨,地下水补给,地下水位和蒸散量( ET)]。Dyna-CLUE和MIROC5用于产生气候和土地利用/土地覆盖情景的未来变化。利用土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)进行补给和ET估算。通过使用模块化三维有限差分地下水流量(MODFLOW)计算未来的地下水位。使用偏向校正的降雨和代表浓度路径(RCP 4.5)的温度数据。总共十二个水质参数(pH,Cl- ,镁2+, ˚F - ,钠+,EC,TH,HCO 3 -,K +,钙2+,SO 4 2-和PO 4 2-)用于地下水水质区(GWQZ)绘图。这些GWPZ和GWQZ分别分为三个区域(劣势,中等势能和良好势能)和四个区域(优质,中等质量,劣质和超过允许极限)。由于城市面积的增加,该盆地的下部被确认为GWPZ较差(2030年为35.76%)和GWQZ。但是,中部和上游部分覆盖良好,适度的区域。利用田间土壤湿度和地下水位监测数据进行验证。据观察,地下水位<5 m bgl对应良好的GWPZ。根据敏感性分析,还观察到补给和pH值是良好的GWPZ(+ 11.83%)和GWQZ(−21.31%)的关键参数。

更新日期:2020-10-13
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