Wildfires play a key role in shaping Mediterranean landscapes and ecosystems and in impacting species dynamics. Numerous studies have investigated the wildfire occurrences and the influence of their drivers in many countries of the Mediterranean Basin. However, in this regard, no studies have attempted to compare different Mediterranean regions, which may appear similar under many aspects. In response to this gap, climatic, topographic, anthropic, and landscape drivers were analyzed and compared to assess the patterns of fire ignition points in terms of fire occurrence and frequency in Catalonia (Spain), Sardinia, and Apulia (Italy). Therefore, the objectives of the study were to (1) assess fire ignition occurrence in terms of probability and frequency, (2) compare the main drivers affecting fire occurrence, and (3) produce fire probability and frequency maps for each region. In pursuit of the above, the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency was mapped using Negative Binomial Hurdle models, while the models’ performances were evaluated using several metrics (AUC, prediction accuracy, RMSE, and the Pearson correlation coefficient). The results showed an inverse correlation between distance from infrastructures (i.e., urban roads and areas) and the occurrence of fires in all three study regions. This relationship became more significant when the frequency of fire ignition points was assessed. Moreover, a positive correlation was found between fire occurrence and landscape drivers according to region. The land cover classes more significantly affected were forest, agriculture, and grassland for Catalonia, Sardinia, and Apulia, respectively. Compared to the climatic, topographic, and landscape drivers, anthropic activity significantly influences fire ignition and frequency in all three regions. When the distance from urban roads and areas decreases, the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency increases. Consequently, it is essential to implement long- to medium-term intervention plans to reduce the proximity between potential ignition points and fuels. In this perspective, the present study provides an applicable decision-making tool to improve wildfire prevention strategies at the European level in an area like the Mediterranean Basin where a profuse number of wildfires take place.

中文翻译：

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使用Hurdle模型对着火概率和频率进行建模：南欧的跨区域研究

野火在塑造地中海景观和生态系统以及影响物种动态方面发挥着关键作用。许多研究调查了野火的发生及其驱动因素在地中海盆地许多国家的影响。但是，在这方面，没有任何研究试图比较不同的地中海地区，在许多方面看起来可能相似。针对这一差距，分析并比较了气候，地形，人类和景观驱动因素，以根据加泰罗尼亚（西班牙），撒丁岛和普利亚（意大利）的着火点和发生频率评估了着火点的模式。因此，本研究的目的是（1）根据概率和频率评估火灾发生的可能性，（2）比较影响火灾发生的主要因素，（3）生成每个区域的着火概率和频率图。为达到上述目的，使用负二项式Hurdle模型绘制了发生火灾的可能性和频率，同时使用几种指标（AUC，预测准确性，RMSE和Pearson相关系数）评估了模型的性能。结果表明，在所有三个研究区域中，距基础设施（即城市道路和区域）的距离与火灾的发生呈负相关。当评估着火点的频率时，这种关系变得更加重要。此外，根据地区，火灾发生与景观驱动因素之间存在正相关。受影响最严重的土地覆盖类别是加泰罗尼亚，撒丁岛和普利亚的森林，农业和草地，分别。与气候，地形和景观驱动器相比，人类活动显着影响所有三个区域的火灾点火和频率。当距城市道路和区域的距离减小时，发生火警的可能性和频率会增加。因此，必须执行中长期干预计划，以减少潜在着火点与燃料之间的距离。从这个角度来看，本研究提供了一个适用的决策工具，可以改善欧洲地区像地中海盆地这样发生大量野火的地区的野火预防策略。当距城市道路和区域的距离减小时，发生火警的可能性和频率会增加。因此，必须执行中长期干预计划，以减少潜在着火点与燃料之间的距离。从这个角度来看，本研究提供了一个适用的决策工具，可以改善欧洲地区像地中海盆地这样发生大量野火的地区的野火预防策略。当距城市道路和区域的距离减小时，发生火警的可能性和频率会增加。因此，必须执行中长期干预计划，以减少潜在着火点与燃料之间的距离。从这个角度来看，本研究提供了一个适用的决策工具，可以改善欧洲地区像地中海盆地这样发生大量野火的地区的野火预防策略。