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Oil palm survival under climate change in Malaysia with future basal stem rot assessments
Forest Pathology ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-11 , DOI: 10.1111/efp.12641
R. Russell M. Paterson 1, 2, 3
Affiliation  

The high economic return from sales of palm oil is because of its inclusion in a vast range of commodities, and Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia. However, increasing cultivation of oil palm has a negative environmental impact threatening sustainability. Basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense is of major concern to sustainability of the palm oil industry. CLIMEX, a computer model, provided suitability‐for‐future‐growth maps of oil palm in Malaysia. The present study used this model to determine how climate affects oil palm growth, providing quantitative scenarios of future oil palm mortality and BSR incidence in Malaysia under a 'no change' presumption. Unsuitable climate for oil palm will make the plant susceptible to disease. High and low levels of oil palm mortality and BSR incidence were predicted from the CLIMEX model in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, respectively, by 2100. Sabah represented the most sustainable region in Malaysia for palm oil production followed by Sarawak. Overall, climate change will not affect the incidence of BSR greatly until 2050 but the situation will deteriorate thereafter. These scenarios can be monitored for accuracy in the future. Methods to ameliorate climate change effects on oil palm and concomitantly reducing BSR incidence are required. Palm oil production may be unsustainable after 2050, and urgent action must be taken.

中文翻译:

马来西亚在气候变化下的油棕生存与未来的基础茎腐病评估

棕榈油的销售带来了很高的经济回报,这是因为将其包含在各种各样的商品中,马来西亚是仅次于印度尼西亚的第二大生产国。然而,增加油棕种植对环境的负面影响威胁了可持续性。灵芝Boninense的基础茎腐病(BSR)是棕榈油行业可持续发展的主要关注点。CLIMEX是一种计算机模型,提供了马来西亚油棕的适合未来增长的地图。本研究使用此模型确定气候如何影响油棕的生长,并提供了在“无变化”假设下马来西亚未来油棕死亡率和BSR发生率的定量方案。油棕的气候不合适会使植物易患病。根据马来西亚半岛和沙巴州的CLIMEX模型,分别预测到2100年,油棕死亡率和BSR发生率的高低水平。沙巴州是马来西亚棕榈油生产最可持续的地区,其次是砂拉越。总体而言,直到2050年,气候变化不会严重影响BSR的发生,但此后情况将恶化。将来可以监视这些方案的准确性。需要改善气候变化对油棕的影响并同时降低BSR发生率的方法。2050年后棕榈油的生产可能无法持续,必须采取紧急行动。
更新日期:2020-10-11
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