In this study, we used scale analysis of returning adults to examine the relationship between early marine growth and survival for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) returning to the Puget Sound and coastal Washington, USA. In total, we examined scales from 2604 individuals from 5 stocks over 7 outmigration years characterized by a range of survival conditions (range from 0.11 to 9.50%). We observed a positive relationship between growth during the first year at sea and survival for adults returning to Puget Sound and the Washington coast. Scale growth during the first year at sea did not co-vary between coastal Washington and Puget Sound stocks, and in most years coastal Chinook salmon attained a larger size at the end of the first year at sea. Large scale oceanographic variables (PDO, NPGO) were not significantly related to variation in scale growth, but for some Puget Sound populations, scale growth was higher in years of cooler sea surface temperatures and lower Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. We developed a biological indicator for forecasting cohort survival of Tumwater Falls hatchery Chinook salmon on the Deschutes River, WA using marine growth estimates of the earliest returning fish (age-2₁). The marine growth index predicted survival better for 8 brood years compared to a recent 5 year average returns forecasting approach (3.40% vs 35.41% Mean Percent Error). Results from this study suggest that early marine growth is important to the survival of Puget Sound and coastal Washington Chinook salmon and may be a useful biological indicator to improve pre-season forecasting of Chinook salmon populations in Washington State.

在这项研究中，我们使用回归成鱼的规模分析来检查早期海洋生长与奇努克鲑鱼 ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) 返回普吉特海湾和美国华盛顿沿海。总的来说，我们检查了来自 5 个种群的 2604 个个体超过 7 个迁徙年的量表，这些个体具有一系列生存条件（范围从 0.11% 到 9.50%）。我们观察到在海上第一年的生长与返回普吉特海湾和华盛顿海岸的成年人的存活率之间存在正相关关系。沿海华盛顿和普吉特海湾种群在海上第一年的规模增长没有共同变化，而且在大多数年份，沿海奇努克鲑鱼在海上第一年年底达到了更大的规模。大尺度海洋变量（PDO、NPGO）与尺度增长的变化没有显着相关性，但对于一些普吉特海湾种群，在海面温度较低的年份和粉红鲑鱼（O.gorbuscha）丰富。我们开发了一种生物指标，用于使用最早返回的鱼类（2 岁₁岁）的海洋生长估计值预测华盛顿州德舒特河上 Tumwater Falls 孵化场奇努克鲑鱼的成群存活率。与最近 5 年平均回报预测方法（3.40% 与 35.41% 平均百分比误差）相比，海洋生长指数更好地预测了 8 年的存活率。这项研究的结果表明，早期海洋生长对普吉特海湾和沿海华盛顿奇努克鲑鱼的生存很重要，并且可能是改善华盛顿州奇努克鲑鱼种群季前预测的有用生物指标。