We study whether novel ideas in biomedical literature appear first in preprints or traditional journals. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the time of appearance for a phrase in the literature, and apply it to a number of phrases, both automatically extracted and suggested by experts. We see that presently most phrases appear first in the traditional journals, but there is a number of phrases with the first appearance on preprint servers. A comparison of the general composition of texts from bioRxiv and traditional journals shows a growing trend of bioRxiv being predictive of traditional journals. We discuss the application of the method for related problems.

中文翻译：

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预印服务器对新创意形成的影响

我们研究了生物医学文献中的新观念是否首先出现在预印本或传统杂志上。我们开发了一种贝叶斯方法来估计一个短语在文献中出现的时间，并将其应用于许多短语，这些短语会自动提取并由专家建议。我们看到，目前大多数短语在传统期刊中排在第一位，但是在预印本服务器上有很多短语排在第一位。通过比较bioRxiv和传统期刊的文本的总体构成，可以看出bioRxiv可以预测传统期刊的趋势正在增长。我们讨论该方法在相关问题上的应用。