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Changes in the Characteristics of Dry and Wet Periods in Europe (1851–2015)
Atmosphere ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-10 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos11101080
Stephanie Hänsel

This study spanning the period 1851–2015 explores the spatial and temporal characteristics of dry and wet periods in Europe as well as their variability and changes. It is based on up to 220 stations with monthly precipitation time series that have a varying data availability within the study period. The stations are classified into eight regions with similar climate characteristics. Dry and wet periods are analyzed using the decile method as well as the modified Rainfall Anomaly Index mRAI at the 3-month timescale. Spatial extent, duration, and frequency of dry and wet periods show a large multi-decadal variability resulting in comparatively small long-term trends over the entirety of Europe for the study periods 1901–2015 and 1951–2015. Nonetheless, several sub-regions show distinct changes—with opposite signals for northern and southern Europe. Spatial extent and duration of dry periods generally decreased, while wet periods show increases throughout the 20th century—particularly in Scandinavia. A simultaneous increase in the frequency of severely dry and wet years, respectively, is observed since the 1980s. This indicates that temperature increases across Europe may be connected with an increasing frequency of extremes at both sides of the probability density function of precipitation.

中文翻译:

欧洲干湿期特征的变化(1851-2015年)

这项涵盖1851年至2015年期间的研究探讨了欧洲干旱和潮湿时期的时空特征及其变化​​和变化。它基于多达220个月降水时间序列的台站,这些台站在研究期内具有不同的数据可用性。这些台站分为八个具有相似气候特征的地区。使用十分位数法以及经过修改的降雨异常指数mRAI在3个月的时间尺度上分析干旱和湿润时期。在1901-2015年和1951-2015年的研究期间,整个欧洲的干湿期的空间范围,持续时间和频率都显示出较大的十年变化,导致整个欧洲的长期趋势相对较小。但是,几个分区显示出明显的变化,对北欧和南欧的信号相反。在整个20世纪,干旱时期的空间范围和持续时间普遍减少,而潮湿时期则有所增加,尤其是在斯堪的纳维亚半岛。自1980年代以来,分别出现严重干旱和潮湿年份的频率同时增加。这表明整个欧洲的温度升高可能与降水概率密度函数两侧的极端频率增加有关。
更新日期:2020-10-11
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