Despite research on the causes of populism and on the narratives of populist leaders, there is little empirical work on the relationship between populist attitudes and behavior, notably including criminal behavior. Our overarching concern is the recurrent social volatility of metaphorical populist themes that are central to impactful political messaging. Drawing on a national United States survey conducted around the 2016 election, we use multilevel models to show that the politically charged exclusionary boundaries of “America First” populism are behaviorally connected to increased odds of having been arrested. We argue that the rapid redrawing of social boundaries that make up populist attitudes is closely connected with the effects of economic and political frustrations during times of rapid social change. In the process, we develop a behavioral analysis of the social volatility of the recurrent populist movement in America.

尽管对民粹主义的成因和民粹主义领导人的叙述进行了研究，但关于民粹主义态度与行为之间的关系的实证研究很少，特别是犯罪行为。我们最关心的是隐喻民粹主义主题在社会上的反复无常，而这些主题对于有效的政治信息传递至关重要。根据美国在2016年大选前后进行的一项全国调查，我们使用多层次模型显示“美国优先”民粹主义在政治上被排斥在外的边界在行为上与被捕的可能性增加有关。我们认为，迅速重塑构成民粹主义态度的社会界限，与社会快速变化时期的经济和政治挫折的影响密切相关。进行中，