The state of an ecosystem is governed by dynamic biotic and abiotic processes, which can only be partially observed. Costs associated with measuring each component limit the feasibility of comprehensive assessments of target ecosystems. Instead, indicator species are recommended as a surrogate index. While this is an attractive concept, indicator species have rarely proven to be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystems and informing management decisions. One deficiency in the existing theoretical development of indicator species may be overcome with the incorporation of latent (i.e. unobservable) states. Advancements in quantitative ecological models allow for latent‐state models to be tested empirically, facilitating the robust evaluation and practical use of indicator species for ecosystem science and management. Here, we extend the existing conceptual models of indicator species to include a direct relationship between an indicator species, ecosystem change drivers and latent processes and variables. Our approach includes explicit consideration of important estimation uncertainty and narrows the range of values a latent variable may take by relating it to measurable attribute(s) of an indicator species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by relating a commonly cited indicator species, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus, to a typical latent process of interest – ecosystem health.

中文翻译：

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一种潜在的过程模型方法，以提高指标种类的实用性

生态系统的状态由动态的生物和非生物过程控制，只能部分观察到。与测量每个组件相关的成本限制了对目标生态系统进行全面评估的可行性。相反，建议将指标种类作为替代指标。虽然这是一个有吸引力的概念，但指标物种很少被证明是监测生态系统和通知管理决策的有效工具。通过结合潜在的（即不可观察的）状态，可以克服现有指示剂物种理论发展的一个不足。定量生态模型的进步使得可以对潜伏状态模型进行经验检验，从而促进了指标物种在生态系统科学和管理中的稳健评估和实际使用。这里，我们扩展了指标物种的现有概念模型，以包括指标物种，生态系统变化动因与潜在过程和变量之间的直接关系。我们的方法包括对重要估计不确定性的明确考虑，并通过将潜在变量与指标种类的可测量属性相关联来缩小潜在变量可能采用的值范围。我们通过关联一个常用的指示物种红背sal来证明这种方法的实用性 我们的方法包括对重要估计不确定性的明确考虑，并通过将潜在变量与指标种类的可测量属性相关联来缩小潜在变量可能采用的值范围。我们通过关联一个常用的指示物种红背sal来证明这种方法的实用性 我们的方法包括对重要估计不确定性的明确考虑，并通过将潜在变量与指标种类的可测量属性相关联来缩小潜在变量可能采用的值范围。我们通过关联一个常用的指示物种红背sal来证明这种方法的实用性Plethodon cinereus是典型的潜在潜伏过程-生态系统健康。