The objective of this study was to analyse periodicities and the long‐term variability of monthly Júcar River–Mancha Oriental Aquifer interactions (RAI) and regionally measured precipitation (PP) with special focus on the correlations between these local hydrological variables and the large climatic patterns governing the Iberian Peninsula, represented by their teleconnection indices – the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). To that end, wavelet analysis has been applied since it not only provides insight into the time‐series dynamics but also permits statistical interpretation and correlation analysis. As a result, several periodicities have been detected: intermittent semi‐annual periodicity in PP and the NAOi and annual periodicity in the RAI, NAOi and WeMOi time series. Long cycles (approximately 14 years) are also observed in the PP and WeMOi time series. The cross‐wavelet spectra show a correlation between the RAI and the rest of the variables on the semi‐annual and the annual scales, while wavelet coherence detects common behaviour with longer cycles – 5–6 years between the NAOi and the RAI and cycles of both 1–5 years and 7–10 years between PP and the RAI. Furthermore, results show that the periodicities in the teleconnection indices and precipitation propagate into the RAI with certain lead times: 3 months between the RAI and PP and 6 months between the RAI and the NAOi. The results indicate that the detected periodicities and the coherence between the studied variables could have applications in strategic planning on a river basin scale, taking into account the propagation times and the frequency scale. This methodological approach can be applied into strategic water resource planning independently of the geographical location of the hydrogeological system, the basin size and the climate region.

中文翻译：

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利用小波分析识别非平稳和长期的河流-含水层相互作用，以应对大型气候模式和人为压力（Mancha Oriental Aquifer，西班牙）

这项研究的目的是分析尤卡河与Mancha东方含水层相互作用（RAI）和区域测得的降水量（PP）的周期性和长期变化，重点是这些局部水文变量与大气候模式之间的相关性。伊比利亚半岛的遥相关指数-北大西洋涛动指数（NAOi）和西地中海涛动指数（WeMOi）代表着伊比利亚半岛。为此，已经应用了小波分析，因为它不仅可以洞察时间序列动态，还可以进行统计解释和相关性分析。结果，已检测到多个周期性：PP和NAOi中的间歇性半年周期以及RAI，NAOi和WeMOi时间序列中的年度周期性。在PP和WeMOi时间序列中也观察到较长的周期（大约14年）。交叉小波谱显示了RAI与半年度和年度尺度上其余变量之间的相关性，而小波相干性则以更长的周期（NAOi与RAI之间的5-6年和PP和RAI之间的1–5年和7–10年。此外，结果表明，遥相关指数和降水的周期以一定的前置时间传播到RAI中：RAI和PP之间为3个月，RAI和NAOi之间为6个月。结果表明，考虑到传播时间和频率尺度，检测到的周期性和研究变量之间的连贯性可以在流域尺度的战略规划中应用。