The North Atlantic experiences basin‐wide, multidecadal changes in sea surface temperature (SST), and this SST variability is linked with regional‐to‐continental scale impacts. These impacts often serve as motivation to study the underlying contributors to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, these impacts can be more than motivation—they can be tools to study the AMV itself. Herein, we consider the positive correlation between Florida summertime rainfall and the AMV (Enfield et al., 2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745). First, we show that this relationship is apparent in updated observational data sets. Next, we demonstrate that large ensembles of climate models are capable of producing the observed relationship between the AMV and Florida summertime rainfall. Finally, using large ensembles from multiple climate models, we show that historical forcing makes models more likely to capture the observed relationship in summer precipitation. Our findings have implications for our understanding of the AMV and for precipitation projections in at‐risk South Florida.

中文翻译：

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通过佛罗里达降雨识别外在强迫的大西洋多年代际变率信号

北大西洋经历了整个海盆温度在海平面范围内的多年代变化，这种海表温度的变化与区域到大陆尺度的影响有关。这些影响通常成为研究大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）的潜在因素的动力。但是，这些影响可能不仅仅是动机，它们可能是研究AMV本身的工具。本文中，我们考虑了佛罗里达夏季降雨与AMV之间的正相关关系（Enfield等，2001，https：//doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745）。首先，我们表明这种关系在更新的观测数据集中显而易见。接下来，我们证明了大型的气候模型集合能够产生AMV与佛罗里达夏季降雨之间的观测关系。最后，使用来自多个气候模型的大型合奏，我们表明，历史强迫使模型更有可能捕获夏季降水中的观测关系。我们的发现对我们对AMV的理解以及处于高风险的南佛罗里达州的降水预测具有影响。