Abstract Detrital provenance methods aid to understand ice sheet conditions in the past, often seeking to define the location of the eroding ice sheet margin. To support interpretation, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict detrital production linked to changing ice sheet conditions. The approach is applied in western Wilkes Land, Antarctica. Considering four candidate ice sheet states, spatial variations in erosion likelihood are estimated from ice sheet models. Spatial analysis with a graticule shows that this process is highly effective in eliminating unlikely source regions. Spatial analysis with a subglacial bedrock geology classification, returns a more comprehensive result tied to geology. Analysis results are consistent with observed modern detritus in the region and highlight variations in predicted detritus production with ice sheet retreat, including the changing importance of different source regions and changes in the nature and diversity of detritus from these. We use the relative likelihood and its deviation from base-rate probability to define qualitatively the level of support for different ice sheet states from detrital records. With current detrital records, qualitative interpretations cannot categorically differentiate ice sheet states, except locally. The quantitative differentiation of ice sheet states is demonstrated for detrital occurrences, given a prior probability and a transport effectiveness for each ice sheet state, showing a high power of discrimination. Our approach supports a more robust capacity to use the detrital record to interpret ice sheet change, even where records are sparse, but high-quality and well constrained detrital records are needed to maximise benefit from quantitative analysis.

中文翻译：

---

评估冰盖变化造成的冰川碎屑的概率和基于模型的方法

摘要 碎屑来源方法有助于了解过去的冰盖状况，通常试图确定侵蚀冰盖边缘的位置。为了支持解释，我们开发了一种概率方法来预测与变化的冰盖条件相关的碎屑产生。该方法应用于南极洲威尔克斯地西部。考虑到四个候选冰盖状态，从冰盖模型估计侵蚀可能性的空间变化。使用经纬网的空间分析表明，该过程在消除不太可能的源区域方面非常有效。使用冰下基岩地质分类进行空间分析，返回与地质相关的更全面的结果。分析结果与该地区观察到的现代碎屑一致，并突出了随着冰盖退缩的预测碎屑产生的变化，包括不同来源区域的重要性不断变化以及这些碎屑的性质和多样性的变化。我们使用相对可能性及其与基本速率概率的偏差来定性地定义碎屑记录对不同冰盖状态的支持水平。使用当前的碎屑记录，定性解释不能分类区分冰盖状态，除了局部。给定每个冰盖状态的先验概率和运输效率，证明了碎屑事件的冰盖状态的定量差异，显示出很高的区分能力。