Valuation of ecosystem services is a powerful lens for viewing the impacts of land-use changes on society and the environment. Land-use change — a pervasive driver of changes in ecosystem services — has never been investigated for its effects on overall ecosystem services in Pakistan. In this study, I use the value transfer method to valuate Pakistan's ecosystem services for the years 1950, 2000, 2015 and 2050. Four land-use scenarios, developed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, are analyzed for year 2050. The results show an increase of $87 billion (in USD 2017) in the value of ecosystem services between years 1950 and 2000 due to the construction of dams and expansion of agricultural areas into the deserts. However, there is a sharp drop of $70 billion between years 2000 and 2015. All future scenarios for year 2050 except B2—an eco-friendly scenario—show a decline (ranging from 12 to 21%) in the value of ecosystem services for year 2015, due to decreased open water, forest and agricultural areas. As a result of compact urbanization, medium economic growth and decline in desertification rates, B2 yields a higher value (by ~$8 billion) than that of year 2015. Furthermore, assessing the two critical services for the country, climate and water services, shows that the value of climate services continuously decreases for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 in comparison to their value for year 1950 due to shrinking of forest and grassland areas. On the other hand, the value of water services increases from 1950 to 2000 due to the scaling up of the irrigation system, but plummets for the 2015 and future land-use scenarios in response to reduced open water. Yet, per capita values for both services (climate and water) show a decrease for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 compared to year 1950. These results can inform land-use planning for efficient provision of ecosystem services in Pakistan.

对生态系统服务的评估是查看土地利用变化对社会和环境的影响的有力镜头。土地利用变化是生态系统服务变化的普遍驱动因素，但从未对其对巴基斯坦整体生态系统服务的影响进行过调查。在这项研究中，我使用价值转移方法来评估巴基斯坦在1950年，2000年，2015年和2050年的生态系统服务。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）排放情景制定的四种土地利用情景，每年进行了分析。 2050年。结果表明，由于修建水坝和将农业面积扩大到沙漠，在1950年至2000年之间，生态系统服务的价值增加了​​870亿美元（按2017年美元计算）。但是，在2000年至2015年间，这一数字急剧下降了700亿美元。除B2（一种生态友好的情景）外，所有2050年的未来情景都显示，由于开放水域，森林和农业面积的减少，2015年的生态系统服务价值将下降（从12％到21％）。由于紧凑的城市化，中等的经济增长和荒漠化率的下降，B2的价值（约80亿美元）比2015年更高。此外，评估该国的两项关键服务，即气候和水服务，表明由于森林和草原面积的缩小，与1950年相比，2000、2015和2050年气候服务的价值连续下降。另一方面，由于灌溉系统的扩大，自1950年到2000年水服务的价值增加了​​，但随着开放水量的减少，2015年及未来土地利用情景将暴跌。但是，与1950年相比，服务（气候和水）的人均值在2000年，2015年和2050年均下降。这些结果可为有效利用巴基斯坦生态系统服务的土地利用规划提供依据。