Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

中文翻译：

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气候变化减缓战略对国际生物能源贸易的影响

大多数减缓气候变化的情景依赖于更多地使用生物能源来使能源系统脱碳。在这里，我们使用第 33 届能源建模论坛研究 (EMF-33) 的结果来调查针对几种气候变化减缓情景中不同综合评估模型的预计国际生物能源贸易。结果表明，在没有气候政策的情况下，国际生物能源贸易可能会随着时间的推移而增加，并且在设定气候目标时变得更加重要。然而，与较弱的目标相比，更严格的气候目标并不一定意味着更大的生物能源贸易，因为最终能源需求可能会减少。然而，随着气候目标的日益严格，生物能源贸易的扩大发生得更快、速度更快。跨模型，对于可能实现 2 °C 目标的情景，预计到 2050 年，全球 72-214 EJ/年的生物能源消费总量中的 10-45 EJ/年将在世界九个地区进行交易。虽然这一预测大于目前的煤炭或天然气贸易量，但它仍然存在低于目前的原油贸易。生物能源贸易的这种增长在很大程度上取代了预计在 21 世纪将显着减少的化石燃料（尤其是石油）贸易。由于气候变化减缓情景通常显示多样化的能源系统，其中许多世界地区可以充当生物能源供应商，因此预测不一定会导致能源安全问题。尽管如此，在严格的气候减缓情景中，预计生物能源贸易将快速增长，从而引发有关基础设施、物流、融资选择、