The article describes how current risk assessment of pressure mining using the “water inrush coefficient method” based on the Down Three Zones Theory is relatively inconsistent with the facts in practice. Based on the Down Three Zones Theory, the intact aquiclude is divided into a water pressure-free zone and a water pressure zone, and four kinds of mining discriminant models containing pressure are summarized by analyzing the influence of the confined groundwater on the intact aquiclude, according to the effect on its spatial characteristics. The relationship between the ratio of water head loss and permeability coefficient in the process of confined water conduction is obtained by building laboratory experiment model, and the height of water pressure zone is determined. The discriminant models are verified using the 81004 working face of the Caozhuang mine field in the Feicheng coalfield. The discriminant model results agree with the actual situation in the field and can be used to evaluate whether a coal seam can be safely mined.

本文介绍了基于“三层区域理论”使用“突水系数法”进行的压力开采目前的风险评估与实践中的事实相对不一致。根据唐三区理论，将完整的含水层分为无水带和水压带，并通过分析承压地下水对完整含水层的影响，总结出四种含压力的判别模型。根据对其空间特征的影响。通过建立实验室实验模型，获得了承压水传导过程中水头损失率与渗透系数之间的关系，并确定了水压区的高度。判别模型使用肥城煤田曹庄矿场的81004工作面进行了验证。判别模型结果与现场实际情况吻合，可用于评估煤层是否可以安全开采。