In a recent issue of Earth's Future (vol. 7, pp. 1020–1026), S. C. Lewis et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001273) recommended a numerically bounded linguistic probability (NBLP) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution studies. We provide a critique of NBLP schemes in general and of Lewis et al.'s in particular, noting two key points. First, evidence from voluminous behavioral science research on the interpretation of linguistic probabilities indicates that NBLP schemes are an ineffective means of communicating uncertainty to others. Second, where the motivation to implement such schemes nevertheless persists, the schemes should be developed through an evidence‐based approach that seeks to optimize interpretational agreement between the scheme and users.

中文翻译：

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数值界的语言概率方案不可能有效地传达不确定性

在刘易斯等人的最新一期《地球的未来》（第7卷，第1020-1026页）中。（2019，https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001273）推荐了一种数字边界语言概率（NBLP）方案，用于在极端事件归因研究中传达概率信息。我们提供了对NBLP方案的一般性批评，特别是对Lewis等人的批评，指出了两个关键点。首先，来自大量行为科学研究的证据对语言概率的解释表明，NBLP方案是一种将不确定性传达给他人的无效手段。其次，在仍然存在实施此类计划的动机的情况下，应通过基于证据的方法来开发计划，以寻求优化计划与用户之间的解释协议。