Compared with the rapid expansion across Europe, the golden jackal colonization of Italy is still limited and slow. No study focused on the habitat selection or landscape connectivity for this species was performed in Italy; thus, the potential distribution and dispersal patterns in the country remain unknown. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (north-eastern Italy) for the golden jackal, as well as to identify the ecological corridors connecting the areas currently occupied by the species. Corridors modelling allowed us both to hypothesize the dispersal dynamics occurring in the study region and to identify possible obstacles to future range expansion. We surveyed golden jackal presence in two study areas, covering an area of 500 km2, from March 2017 to February 2018. Using collected data, we modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Subsequently, a habitat suitability prediction at a finer scale was used to estimate landscape resistance, starting from which, we modelled dispersal corridors among areas currently occupied by the species using a factorial least cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. Our results indicated a moderate potential for large parts of the study region to support the occurrence of golden jackal family groups, whose presence seems to be mainly driven by the presence of wide areas covered by broadleaved forests and shrublands and by the absence of wide intensive agricultural areas. The predicted connectivity networks showed that three main permeable corridors are likely to connect golden jackal occurrence areas within the study region, while all the other corridors are characterized by a very low path density. Both the habitat selection and connectivity analyses showed a strong negative impact of the intensive cultivated plain on species stable presence and movement providing critical information for the conservation of the golden jackal in Italy.

中文翻译：

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首次评估意大利东北部金豺的栖息地适宜性和连通性

与跨越欧洲的快速扩张相比，意大利的金豺狼殖民化仍然有限且缓慢。在意大利没有进行过针对该物种栖息地选择或景观连通性的研究；因此，该国的潜在分布和分散模式仍然未知。我们的目标是评估弗留利-威尼斯朱利亚地区（意大利东北部）对金豺的适宜性，并确定连接该物种目前占据的区域的生态走廊。走廊建模使我们能够假设研究区域中发生的扩散动态，并确定未来范围扩展的可能障碍。从 2017 年 3 月到 2018 年 2 月，我们在两个研究区域调查了金豺的存在，覆盖面积为 500 平方公里。使用收集的数据，我们基于集成建模方法对物种家庭范围的栖息地适宜性进行了建模。随后，使用更精细尺度的栖息地适宜性预测来估计景观阻力，从中我们使用因子最小成本路径和累积阻力核方法对物种当前占据的区域之间的扩散走廊进行建模。我们的结果表明，研究区域的大部分地区都有可能支持金豺家族群体的发生，其存在似乎主要是由于存在阔叶林和灌木地覆盖的广阔区域以及缺乏广泛的集约化农业。领域。预测的连通性网络表明，三个主要的渗透性走廊很可能连接研究区内的金豺发生区，而所有其他走廊的特点是路径密度非常低。栖息地选择和连通性分析都表明，密集耕种平原对物种稳定存在和运动产生了强烈的负面影响，为意大利金豺的保护提供了关键信息。