Abstract—The models based on the empirical data are proposed for probabilistic forecasting the characteristics of strong ground motions (SGM) from the earthquakes, potentially dangerous for the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania. We consider the models of SGM characteristics that are most important in the engineering practice (macroseismic intensities of ground shaking, peak ground accelerations, periods, durations, spectra, and strong-motion accelerograms) in the vicinity of the sources of earthquakes of different magnitudes and at different distances from the sources in application to the seismogeological conditions of the study region. The models are developed using both the conventional statistical analysis of a large amount of data on instrumental recording and macroseismic description of the strong and perceivable earthquakes in the Caucasus and other seismically active regions of the world and a new method for reconstructing the spectra of the strong earthquakes from their macroseismic field. The cross-comparison of the estimates obtained based on the proposed models with each other and with the estimates obtained by the other authors has shown that they are fairly realistic and reliable.

中文翻译：

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用于预测北奥塞梯-阿兰共和国领土可能发生的地震影响的强地面运动模拟

摘要——提出了基于经验数据的模型，用于对地震产生的强地面运动 (SGM) 的特征进行概率预测，这对北奥塞梯-阿兰共和国领土具有潜在危险。我们考虑了不同震级和地震源附近在工程实践中最重要的 SGM 特征模型（地震动的大地震强度、地面加速度峰值、周期、持续时间、频谱和强运动加速度图）。在距震源不同距离处应用于研究区的地震地质条件。这些模型是利用对高加索和世界其他地震活跃地区强震和可感知地震的大量仪器记录和宏观地震描述数据的常规统计分析，以及重建强震波谱的新方法而开发的。来自其宏观地震场的地震。根据所提出的模型获得的估计值相互之间以及与其他作者获得的估计值的交叉比较表明，它们是相当现实和可靠的。