The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading all across the globe. By June 29, 2020, the World Health Organization announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 9 994 206 and resulted in more than 499 024 deaths. The earliest case of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was registered on March 2 in 2020. Since then, the number of infections as per the outcome of the tests increased gradually on a daily basis. The KSA has 182 493 cases, with 124 755 recoveries and 1551 deaths on June 29, 2020. There have been significant efforts to develop models that forecast the risks, parameters, and impacts of this epidemic. These models can aid in controlling and preventing the outbreak of these infections. In this regard, this article details the extent to which the infection cases, prevalence, and recovery rate of this pandemic are in the country and the predictions that can be made using the past and current data. The well-known classical SIR model was applied to predict the highest number of cases that may be realized and the flattening of the curve afterward. On the other hand, the ARIMA model was used to predict the prevalence cases. Results of the SIR model indicate that the repatriation plan reduced the estimated reproduction number. The results further affirm that the containment technique used by Saudi Arabia to curb the spread of the disease was efficient. Moreover, using the results, close interaction between people, despite the current measures remains a great risk factor to the spread of the disease. This may force the government to take even more stringent measures. By validating the performance of the applied models, ARIMA proved to be a good forecasting method from current data. The past data and the forecasted data, as per the ARIMA model provided high correlation, showing that there were minimum errors.

中文翻译：

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使用 ARIMA 和 SIR 模型分析和预测沙特阿拉伯王国的 COVID-19 大流行

新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 正在全球蔓延。截至 2020 年 6 月 29 日，世界卫生组织宣布全球病例数已达 9 994 206 例，导致超过 499 024 人死亡。沙特阿拉伯王国 (KSA) 最早的 COVID-19 病例于 2020 年 3 月 2 日登记。从那时起，根据检测结果，感染人数每天都在逐渐增加。截至 2020 年 6 月 29 日，沙特阿拉伯有 182493 例病例，124755 人康复，1551 人死亡。为开发预测这种流行病的风险、参数和影响的模型做出了重大努力。这些模型可以帮助控制和预防这些感染的爆发。在这方面，本文详细介绍了感染病例、流行程度、这种流行病的恢复率和恢复率在该国以及可以使用过去和当前数据做出的预测。应用著名的经典 SIR 模型来预测可能实现的最大案例数以及随后的曲线变平。另一方面，ARIMA 模型用于预测患病率。SIR 模型的结果表明，遣返计划减少了估计的再生数。结果进一步证实，沙特阿拉伯用于遏制疾病传播的遏制技术是有效的。此外，使用这些结果，尽管目前采取了措施，但人与人之间的密切互动仍然是疾病传播的一个很大风险因素。这可能会迫使政府采取更严厉的措施。通过验证应用模型的性能，根据当前数据，ARIMA 被证明是一种很好的预测方法。根据 ARIMA 模型，过去的数据和预测的数据提供了高度的相关性，表明误差最小。