Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining the movement of water and the human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that pairs exploratory modeling with global sensitivity analysis to enhance our ability to make inferences on water scarcity vulnerabilities in institutionally complex river basins. Diagnostic evaluation of models representing institutionally complex river basins with many stakeholders poses significant challenges. First, it needs to exploit a large and diverse suite of simulations to capture important human‐natural system interactions as well as institutionally aware behavioral mechanisms. Second, it needs to have performance metrics that are consequential and draw on decision‐relevant model outputs that adequately capture the multisector concerns that emerge from diverse basin stakeholders. We demonstrate the proposed model diagnostic framework by evaluating how potential interactions between changing hydrologic conditions and human demands influence the frequencies and durations of water shortages of varying magnitudes experienced by hundreds of users in a subbasin of the Colorado River. We show that the dominant factors shaping these effects vary both across users and, for an individual user, across percentiles of shortage magnitude. These differences hold even for users sharing diversion locations, demand levels or water right seniority. Our findings underline the importance of detailed institutional representation for such basins, as institutions strongly shape how dominant factors of stakeholder vulnerabilities propagate through the complex network of users.

中文翻译：

---

推进诊断模型评价以更好地理解制度复杂流域的缺水机制。

水资源系统模型通过代表决定水运动的地球物理过程以及将水分配到各种竞争用途的人为因素，从而对相应的系统压力源进行了有价值的推断。这项研究提供了一个诊断评估框架，该框架将探索性模型与全局敏感性分析相结合，以增强我们对体制复杂的流域缺水脆弱性进行推断的能力。对代表具有许多利益相关者的机构复杂流域的模型进行诊断评估提出了重大挑战。首先，它需要利用大量多样的模拟来捕获重要的人与自然系统的相互作用以及具有制度意识的行为机制。第二，它需要具有相应的绩效指标，并利用与决策相关的模型输出，以充分反映流域各利益相关方提出的多部门关注。我们通过评估不断变化的水文条件与人类需求之间的潜在相互作用，如何影响科罗拉多河一个流域数百名用户经历的水资源短缺的频率和持续时间，来论证提出的模型诊断框架。我们表明，影响这些影响的主导因素在不同用户之间以及对于单个用户而言，在短缺程度的百分位数之间都不同。这些差异甚至对于共享分流位置，需求水平或水权资历的用户也适用。我们的研究结果强调了对此类盆地进行详细机构代表的重要性，