The Cactaceae is considered one of the most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent to which climate change could compromise the conservation status of this group has rarely been investigated. The present study advances this issue under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti species in the Baja California Peninsula (n = 40), (2) to study how the impact of climate change is distributed in this group according to the species’ conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these impacts are organized from a biogeographical and functional perspective. We addressed these objectives under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migration. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission pathways under the two extreme migration scenarios show consistency regarding the identity of the species most vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant future scenario that has, on one hand, species with large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on the other, species with large habitat reductions (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspecific levels in the study area, since the total number of threatened species in the future might largely increase.

仙人掌科被认为是世界上受威胁最大的分类单元之一。但是，很少研究气候变化在多大程度上损害该群体的保护状况。本研究通过三个具体目标推进了这一问题：（1）评估气候变化对下加利福尼亚州半岛特有仙人掌物种分布的影响（n = 40），（2）根据物种的保护状况研究气候变化的影响在这一组中的分布，（3）从生物地理和功能的角度分析这些影响的组织方式。我们通过三种社会经济排放途径（RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5）并使用两种极端迁移方案来解决这些目标：完全跟踪气候变化和不迁移。总而言之，在两种极端迁移情景下的所有社会经济排放途径在最易受气候变化影响的物种的身份方面表现出一致性，并描绘了一个差异的未来情景，该情景一方面具有巨大的潜在栖息地增益/稳定性（获胜者） ; 另一方面，是栖息地减少大的物种（失败者）。我们的工作表明，获胜物种具有热带亲和力，球状生长，包括大多数目前受到威胁的物种，而失败者则在干旱和地中海系统中，并且大多不受威胁。因此，当前和未来的威胁因素在生物地理和分类学领域不会重叠。由于未来受威胁物种的总数可能会大大增加，因此在研究区域的超特定水平上显示出令人担忧的境界。