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Improving Predictions of Climate Change–Land Use Change Interactions
Trends in Ecology & Evolution ( IF 16.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.019
Henrike Schulte to Bühne , Joseph A. Tobias , Sarah M. Durant , Nathalie Pettorelli

Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change–land use change (CC–LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC–LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.



中文翻译:

改善气候变化的预测-土地利用变化的相互作用

气候变化和土地利用变化经常相互作用,以意想不到的方式改变生物多样性。迄今为止,对气候变化-土地利用变化(CC-LUC)相互作用的研究一直集中在量化生物多样性的成果上,而不是确定潜在的生态机制,这使得难以预测相互作用和设计适当的保护对策。我们提出了一个基于风险的框架,以进一步了解CC-LUC的相互作用。通过确定驱动生物多样性受到土地利用变化的影响和脆弱性的因素,然后研究气候变化如何改变这些因素(反之亦然),该框架将允许在地理和生态上比较不同相互作用机制的影响。背景,支持为减少相互作用的压力源而减少生物多样性损失的努力。

更新日期:2020-10-02
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