Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.

量化洪水风险评估的重点是资产损失，而忽略了收入和消费损失对家庭福利的长期影响。福利损失的程度取决于韧性–预测，抵抗，应付，恢复和学习冲击的能力。在这里，我们使用一种新颖的福利损失建模框架，并在孟加拉国沿海地区进行了高分辨率的空间分析，以量化当前和未来气候和社会经济条件下热带气旋造成的福利损失。我们进一步测试了旨在增强弹性的各种适应选项。结果表明，贫困家庭平均遭受的资产损失为7％，但福利损失为42％。结合堤防加高，灾后支持和更坚固的住房，可以减少多达70％的福利损失，通过使穷人受益，增强抵御能力并在社会经济和气候不确定因素下表现出强大的能力来促进可持续发展。因此，以福利为导向的观点有助于确定适应方案，这些方案可以增强抵御能力，并且一无所获。