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Determinants of dengue virus dispersal in the Americas
Virus Evolution ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.1093/ve/veaa074
Orchid M Allicock 1, 2 , Nikita Sahadeo 1 , Philippe Lemey 3 , Albert J Auguste 4 , Marc A Suchard 5, 6, 7 , Andrew Rambaut 8 , Christine V F Carrington 1
Affiliation  

Abstract Dengue viruses (DENVs) are classified into four serotypes, each of which contains multiple genotypes. DENV genotypes introduced into the Americas over the past five decades have exhibited different rates and patterns of spatial dispersal. In order to understand factors underlying these patterns, we utilized a statistical framework that allows for the integration of ecological, socioeconomic, and air transport mobility data as predictors of viral diffusion while inferring the phylogeographic history. Predictors describing spatial diffusion based on several covariates were compared using a generalized linear model approach, where the support for each scenario and its contribution is estimated simultaneously from the data set. Although different predictors were identified for different serotypes, our analysis suggests that overall diffusion of DENV-1, -2, and -3 in the Americas was associated with airline traffic. The other significant predictors included human population size, the geographical distance between countries and between urban centers and the density of people living in urban environments.

中文翻译:

登革热病毒在美洲传播的决定因素

摘要 登革热病毒 (DENVs) 分为四种血清型,每种血清型都包含多种基因型。在过去五年中引入美洲的 DENV 基因型表现出不同的空间扩散速率和模式。为了理解这些模式背后的因素,我们利用了一个统计框架,该框架允许整合生态、社会经济和航空运输流动性数据作为病毒传播的预测指标,同时推断系统地理历史。使用广义线性模型方法比较基于多个协变量描述空间扩散的预测变量,其中从数据集同时估计对每个场景的支持及其贡献。尽管针对不同的血清型确定了不同的预测因子,我们的分析表明,DENV-1、-2 和 -3 在美洲的整体扩散与航空运输有关。其他重要的预测因素包括人口规模、国家之间和城市中心之间的地理距离以及居住在城市环境中的人口密度。
更新日期:2020-07-01
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