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Supporting Policy Design for the Diffusion of Cleaner Technologies: A Spatial Empirical Agent-Based Model
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 , DOI: 10.3390/ijgi9100581
Caterina Caprioli , Marta Bottero , Elena De Angelis

Renewable energy resources and energy-efficient technologies, as well as building retrofitting, are only some of the possible strategies that can achieve more sustainable cities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies and incentives are often provided by governments to increase the number of people adopting these sustainable energy efficiency actions. However, actual sales of green products are currently not as high as would be desired. The present paper applies a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to simulate a complex socio-economic-architectural adaptive system to study the temporal diffusion and the willingness of inhabitants to adopt photovoltaic (PV) systems. The San Salvario neighborhood in Turin (Italy) is used as an exemplary case study for testing consumer behavior associated with this technology, integrating social network theories, opinion formation dynamics and an adaptation of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Data/characteristics for both buildings and people are explicitly spatialized with the level of detail at the block scale. Particular attention is given to the comparison of the policy mix for supporting decision-makers and policymakers in the definition of the most efficient strategies for achieving a long-term vision of sustainable development. Both variables and outcomes accuracy of the model are validated with historical real-world data.

中文翻译:

清洁技术扩散的支持策略设计:基于空间经验代理的模型

可再生能源和高能效技术以及建筑改造,只是实现更可持续城市发展和减少温室气体排放的一些可能策略。政府通常提供补贴和激励措施,以增加采取这些可持续能源效率行动的人数。但是,目前绿色产品的实际销量还不如预期的高。本文应用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的基于混合主体的模型(ABM)来模拟复杂的社会经济建筑适应性系统,以研究居民的时间扩散和居民采用光伏(PV)系统的意愿。意大利都灵的圣萨尔瓦里奥社区被用作示例案例研究,以测试与此技术相关的消费者行为,整合社交网络理论,观点形成动态以及计划行为理论(TPB)的改编。建筑物和人员的数据/特征都以区块级别的详细程度明确地进行了空间化。特别注意在支持决策者和决策者的政策组合比较中,对实现可持续发展的长远愿景的最有效战略的定义。该模型的变量和结果准确性均已通过历史真实数据进行了验证。建筑物和人员的数据/特征都以区块级别的详细程度明确地进行了空间化。特别注意在支持决策者和决策者的政策组合比较中,对实现可持续发展的长远愿景的最有效战略的定义。该模型的变量和结果准确性均已通过历史真实数据进行了验证。建筑物和人员的数据/特征都以区块级别的详细程度明确地进行了空间化。特别注意在支持决策者和决策者的政策组合比较中,对实现可持续发展的长远愿景的最有效战略的定义。该模型的变量和结果准确性均已通过历史真实数据进行了验证。
更新日期:2020-10-02
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