There has been a continuous effort to quantify the expected greenhouse gas reductions from plug- in electric vehicles (PEVs). Most existing studies are based on standardized driving cycles to compare the performance of PEVs and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This study is based on assigning the most efficient plug-in hybrid or full electric vehicle to a household based on the household travel behavior as collected by GPS tracking data of thousands of vehicles’ real trips in California, and it found that PEV adoption can reduce greenhouse gas emission by up to 65%. We further explore the market share difference in assigning optimal vehicle models by considering vehicle-based and household-based travel demand, and we found that, given currently available technology, in many cases adoption of Plug-in Hybrid Electric vehicles (PHEVs) will not necessarily result in significantly higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (2.8% higher) compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while PHEVs have advantages to satisfy household’s long-distance travel demand. However, if PHEV drivers never charge their vehicles, the achievable GHG emission reduction will be decreased by nearly 2/3.

一直在努力量化插电式电动汽车（PEV）带来的预期温室气体减排量。现有的大多数研究都基于标准化的行驶周期，以比较PEV和传统内燃机（ICE）车辆的性能。这项研究基于根据加利福尼亚州成千上万辆汽车实际出行的GPS跟踪数据收集的家庭出行行为，将最高效的插电式混合动力或全电动汽车分配给一个家庭，并且发现采用PEV可以减少温室气体排放量高达65％。我们通过考虑基于车辆和基于家庭的出行需求，进一步探讨了在分配最佳车辆模型时的市场份额差异，并且我们发现，鉴于当前可用的技术，在许多情况下，采用插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）不一定会导致温室气体（GHG）排放量明显高于电池电动汽车（BEV）（2.8％），而PHEV具有满足家庭长期使用的优势。远距离旅行需求。但是，如果PHEV驾驶员不给车辆充电，则可实现的温室气体减排量将减少近2/3。