This study presents a steady-state Markov chain model to predict the long-term probability of drought conditions. The research aims to propose a rigorous framework for statistical analysis of drought characteristics and its trends over time for a large area of aquifers and plains in Iran. For this purpose, two meteorological indicators called the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI) are examined. The groundwater drought study includes more than 26,000 wells in about 600 meteorological stations over 20 years being surveyed daily. This study discusses the spatial interpolation of drought steady-state probabilities based on recorded SPI and GRI data at three intervals, i.e., 1994 to 2004, 2005–2015, and 1994 to 2015. The final zoning of the system results in an average increase in the steady-state constant of the SPI index in the first half of the whole study period to approximately 62%. While in the second period of study, the average percentage of the steady-state climatic drought was calculated to be 75%. The average amount of drought in the extended study area of the country was found to be up to 46%.

这项研究提出了一个稳态马尔可夫链模型来预测干旱条件的长期可能性。该研究旨在为伊朗大面积含水层和平原的干旱特征及其随时间变化趋势的统计分析提出一个严格的框架。为此，研究了两个气象指标，即标准化降水指数（SPI）和地下水资源指数（GRI）。地下水干旱研究在20年间每天对约600个气象站的26,000口井进行了调查。这项研究基于记录的SPI和GRI数据以三个间隔（即1994年至2004年，2005年至2015年和1994年至2015年）讨论了干旱稳态概率的空间插值。系统的最终分区导致整个研究期的前半段SPI指数的稳态常数平均增加到大约62％。在第二阶段的研究中，稳态气候干旱的平均百分比为75％。在该国扩展的研究区域中，平均干旱量高达46％。