Climate change may affect soil fertility because it can alter various soil physicochemical characteristics through different mechanisms. Currently, a better understanding of its effect on soil physicochemical characteristics is required for sustainable soil management. Therefore, the main purposes of this study were to assess the effect of climate change on key soil physicochemical characteristics (i.e., soil moisture, organic carbon content, and macro-nutrients) and to develop a suitable soil management strategy to enhance climate resilience of smallholder farming in a Tunisian oasis, called Gabes Oasis. An investigation methodology was developed based on future climate projection and simulation of climate change effects on key soil physicochemical characteristics from 2019 to 2050 using the HP1 model. The HP1 model was calibrated and validated based on intensive field measurements over four years (from January 2015 to December 2018) in a pomegranate-field in Gabes Oasis. The results showed that the HP1 model could simulate soil physicochemical characteristics under the baseline scenario. Compared to the no climate change scenario, significant effects of climate change (i.e., RCP8.5, RCP6.0, and RCP4.5 scenarios) on the investigated key soil characteristics were predicted by 2050. Among the investigated soil characteristics, it was predicted that soil organic carbon content was most critically affected. By 2050, it is expected that this content will decrease by 14% for RCP4.5 scenario, 16% for RCP6.0 scenario, and 23% for RCP8.5 scenario. Finally, it is recommended to apply the following cow manure amount to enhance soil characteristics resistance to future climate change: 3748 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. However, more experiments on fields are necessary to investigate the sustainability of the proposed level of cow manure.

气候变化可能会影响土壤肥力，因为它可以通过不同的机制改变土壤的各种理化特性。当前，对于可持续的土壤管理，需要更好地了解其对土壤理化特性的影响。因此，本研究的主要目的是评估气候变化对关键土壤理化特性（即土壤水分，有机碳含量和大量养分）的影响，并制定合适的土壤管理策略以增强小农的气候适应力在突尼斯绿洲（Gabes Oasis）中耕种。根据未来的气候预测以及使用HP1模型模拟的气候变化对2019年至2050年关键土壤理化特性的影响，开发了一种调查方法。HP1模型是根据Gabes Oasis石榴田中四年（从2015年1月至2018年12月）的密集现场测量结果进行校准和验证的。结果表明，HP1模型可以模拟基准情景下的土壤理化特性。与无气候变化情景相比，到2050年，气候变化（即RCP8.5，RCP6.0和RCP4.5情景）对所调查的关键土壤特征的重大影响得以预测。土壤有机碳含量受到最严重的影响。到2050年，预计该内容对于RCP4.5方案将减少14％，对于RCP6.0方案将减少16％，对于RCP8.5方案将减少23％。最后，^-1 年^-1。但是，有必要进行更多的田间试验，以调查拟议水平的牛粪肥的可持续性。