Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century,Nature

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Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-30 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2742-6
Jason P Briner ₁ , Joshua K Cuzzone _{2,

3} , Jessica A Badgeley ₄ , Nicolás E Young ₅ , Eric J Steig _{4,

6} , Mathieu Morlighem ₂ , Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel ₃ , Gregory J Hakim ₆ , Joerg M Schaefer _{5,

7} , Jesse V Johnson ₈ , Alia J Lesnek ₁ , Elizabeth K Thomas ₁ , Estelle Allan ₉ , Ole Bennike ₁₀ , Allison A Cluett ₁ , Beata Csatho ₁ , Anne de Vernal ₉ , Jacob Downs ₈ , Eric Larour ₃ , Sophie Nowicki ₁₁

Affiliation

Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA.
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Geochemistry, Palisades, NY, USA.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA.
Geotop, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada.
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate1. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change. Here we reveal unprecedented mass loss from the GIS this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years. We force a high-resolution ice-sheet model with an ensemble of climate histories constrained by ice-core data2. Our simulation domain covers southwestern Greenland, the mass change of which is dominated by surface mass balance. The results agree favourably with an independent chronology of the history of the GIS margin3,4. The largest pre-industrial rates of mass loss (up to 6,000 billion tonnes per century) occurred in the early Holocene, and were similar to the contemporary (AD 2000-2018) rate of around 6,100 billion tonnes per century5. Simulations of future mass loss from southwestern GIS, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios corresponding to low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration trajectories6, predict mass loss of between 8,800 and 35,900 billion tonnes over the twenty-first century. These rates of GIS mass loss exceed the maximum rates over the past 12,000 years. Because rates of mass loss from the southwestern GIS scale linearly5 with the GIS as a whole, our results indicate, with high confidence, that the rate of mass loss from the GIS will exceed Holocene rates this century.

中文翻译：

本世纪格陵兰冰盖的质量损失率将超过全新世值

格陵兰冰盖 (GIS) 正在以高速度流失1。鉴于观测记录的短期性质，很难评估这种质量损失趋势的历史重要性。与温室气体浓度和全球温度的记录不同，在这些记录中，观测数据已与古气候数据集合并，GIS 质量变化率没有相当长的记录。在这里，我们通过将当代和未来的 GIS 质量损失率置于过去 12,000 年的自然变化背景下，揭示了本世纪 GIS 前所未有的质量损失。我们强制建立一个高分辨率冰盖模型，其中包含受冰芯数据2 约束的气候历史集合。我们的模拟域覆盖格陵兰岛西南部，其质量变化以地表质量平衡为主。结果与 GIS 边缘历史的独立年表一致 3,4。工业化前最大的质量损失率（每世纪高达 60000 亿吨）发生在全新世早期，与当代（公元 2000-2018 年）约每世纪 61000 亿吨的速度相似5。根据与低 (RCP2.6) 和高 (RCP8.5) 温室气体浓度轨迹 6 相对应的代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景，西南 GIS 未来质量损失的模拟预测质量损失在 8,800 到 359,000 亿吨之间二十一世纪。GIS 质量损失的这些速率超过了过去 12,000 年的最大速率。由于西南 GIS 的质量损失率与 GIS 整体呈线性比例，因此我们的结果具有很高的置信度，

更新日期：2020-09-30

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