Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations, both because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods, using a 26-year dataset for North Island robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F̅) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs, and empirically estimate Ne /N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, allowing us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the dataset while simultaneously modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 ± 0.81 lethal equivalents) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 ± 0.81 lethal equivalents) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. F̅ increased to 0.10 (± 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (± 0.3) to 160 (± 6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a Ne /N ratio of 0.56 (± 0.01). Based on a model that also incorporates habitat regeneration, the population is projected to reach a maximum of 331-1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then begin slowly declining. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887-1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis therefore makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. Article Impact Statement: Empirically estimating the future consequences of inbreeding allows rational long-term management of reintroduced populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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使用重新引入种群的长期数据来凭经验估计近亲繁殖的未来后果

近交衰退是对重新引入种群的重要长期威胁。然而，很难估计野生种群中近交衰退的强度，这既是因为谱系数据不可避免地不完整，也因为生存和繁殖需要良好的数据。预测未来的种群后果尤其困难，因为这还需要预测未来的近亲繁殖水平及其对长期种群动态的影响，这些动态受到许多不确定性的影响。我们使用 1992 年重新引入 Tiritiri Matangi 岛的北岛知更鸟（Petroica longipes）的 26 年数据集说明如何通过贝叶斯状态空间建模方法得出此类预测。我们使用谱系数据对平均近亲繁殖水平的增加进行建模(F̅) 随着时间的推移，基于可能的育种配对的亲属关系，并凭经验估计 Ne /N（有效/人口普查人口规模）。我们使用多重插补对近交系数的未知成分进行建模，使我们能够估计近交对数据集中所有 1458 只鸟类的存活率的影响，同时对密度依赖性和环境随机性进行建模。该模型表明，近亲繁殖降低了幼鱼的存活率（1.83 ± 0.81 致死当量），并可能降低了随后的成鱼存活率（0.44 ± 0.81 致死当量），但对产生的幼鸟数量没有明显影响。随着人口在 25 年中从 33 (± 0.3) 人增加到 160 (± 6) 人，F̅ 增加到 0.10 (± 0.001)，Ne / N 比值为 0.56 (± 0.01)。基于一个也包含栖息地再生的模型，预计到 2130 年，种群数量将达到 331-1144 只（中位数为 726 只），然后开始缓慢下降。如果没有近亲繁殖，预计种群数量将稳定在 887-1465 只（中位数为 1131 只）。因此，这种分析可以根据经验得出有关近亲繁殖管理的理性决策所需的信息，同时考虑到多种不确定性来源。文章影响声明：通过经验估计近亲繁殖的未来后果可以对重新引入的种群进行合理的长期管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。因此，这种分析可以根据经验得出有关近亲繁殖管理的理性决策所需的信息，同时考虑到多种不确定性来源。文章影响声明：通过经验估计近亲繁殖的未来后果可以对重新引入的种群进行合理的长期管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。因此，这种分析可以根据经验得出有关近亲繁殖管理的理性决策所需的信息，同时考虑到多种不确定性来源。文章影响声明：通过经验估计近亲繁殖的未来后果可以对重新引入的种群进行合理的长期管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。