The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance.

印度尼西亚的碳密集泥炭地正在经历着迅速的土地利用变化，具有全球重要性。在这里，为了农业扩张而排干的泥炭增加了大规模失控大火的风险。已经提出了针对这种复杂的环境，人道主义和经济危机的几种解决方案，例如森林保护措施和农业支持。但是，许多程序在很大程度上失败了。提议将干预措施作为综合方法中的有前途的策略，但是尚不清楚要结合哪些政策干预措施以及如何使这些措施与当地条件保持一致。我们评估两种干预措施及其组合在通过驾驶行为改变减少火灾发生方面的影响：激励措施（即取决于环境绩效的奖励）和威慑作用（例如 G。制裁，引起人们对健康的关注）。我们研究了这些干预措施对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛10个具有不同景观和火灾风险环境的村庄的影响。由私人主导的标准化计划的实施，使我们可以通过自然的实验设计来研究结果的变异性。我们使用两步定性比较分析（QCA）以及地理空间和社会经济调查数据，进行了系统的跨案例比较，以找出最有效的干预措施组合（n  = 303）。我们分析了近况（干预，例如对制裁的恐惧）和边远环境（背景；例如泥炭土的范围）对火灾后果的综合影响。我们展示了如何根据现有环境中的风险水平，成功实施某些干预措施。我们发现，尽管该计划被设计为基于奖励的框架，但人们并没有对奖励做出单独的响应。相反，制裁和引起关注是预防火灾的关键，这对公平产生了重要影响。我们的结果促进了全球对减轻泥炭火灾的兴趣，以及有关PES性能的迅速发展的文献。